Podbit · Economist Podcasts
The anonymous French artist Invader has hidden 1,500 pixelated mosaic artworks across Paris alone, with thousands more scattered across 80+ cities — affixed to the Eiffel Tower, the Hollywood sign, and even sent to the International Space Station. He might be even busier than Banksy.
Where this was said
At 20:00 · chapter starts 15:35
The Elm Wealth experiment didn't stop at human participants. The researchers also ran AI models through the same crystal-ball test and found the results were both reassuring and sobering. The machines correctly predicted market direction about 60% of the time — better than the 51% human average — but they made the same fundamental error: over-betting when uncertain and under-betting when confident. [1] — Joshua Roberts "AI models: 60% correct market direction: AI models tested in the same Elm Wealth experiment correctly predicted market direction 60% of the…" 17:00 Rosie Blau admits to finding it 'quite comforting' that the machines aren't brilliant at this. The real revelation comes when the five expert macro traders are introduced. Unlike the AI and lay participants, all five finished in profit, and on average they more than doubled their stake. [2] — Joshua Roberts "When Elm Wealth gave the same test to 5 expert macro traders, all five made money and on average more than doubled their stake. Their edge …" 17:37 Their edge wasn't dramatically better prediction — it was dramatically better bet sizing. On low-conviction days they chose not to trade at all. On high-conviction days they ramped up leverage aggressively. Roberts draws a broader lesson: the investing world obsesses over what to buy, but the more important question is how much to bet, calibrated to actual confidence. This, he argues, is possibly the most important question in investment, and the one we give the least thought to.
Markets don't move on events — they move on surprises versus expectations. If a great jobs report was already priced in, knowing it in advance is worthless. Participants in the Elm Wealth study called the market direction correctly only 51% of the time, barely above a coin flip.
AI models tested in the Elm Wealth experiment predicted market direction 60% of the time — better than humans — but made the same catastrophic mistake: they didn't calibrate bet sizes to their confidence. Even our supposed future overlords took too much risk when uncertain.
AI models tested in the same Elm Wealth experiment correctly predicted market direction 60% of the time, slightly better than humans, but still struggled with bet sizing.
All 5 expert macro traders recruited by Elm Wealth for the same experiment finished with profits and on average more than doubled their money.
When Elm Wealth gave the same test to 5 expert macro traders, all five made money and on average more than doubled their stake. Their edge wasn't better prediction — it was disciplined bet sizing. On uncertain days they didn't trade at all. On high-conviction days they went all in.
Steven Pressfield's insight: don't wait for the commitment to feel real before acting like a professional. Set up the studio. Make the schedule. Show up. Commitment doesn't precede action — it follows it. You act like a pro first, and your brain catches up with justifications after. The action is the commitment.
Robby Hoffman isn't fearless — she's terrified all the time. The difference is she does it anyway, because not doing it feels worse than the fear itself.
John Mulaney texted Robby Hoffman out of nowhere saying he'd been a fan for a while and wanted to make a Netflix special with her. Robby called it 'shocking, horrifying, anxiety-inducing, surreal and thrilling' — and said yes.
Mulaney is buttoned-up, suit-wearing, classy. Robby is gritty, raw, and undefined. Together they made the collab nobody expected. Batman and Robin. Eminem and Dido.
Music had Pope Gregory forcing notation. Comedy has had 'magical thinking' — he's just got funny bones. But jokes work through discoverable, teachable mechanics. Writing down the rules doesn't kill the magic; it gives more people access to it.
Howard Ashman had one insight nobody else had: animated Disney films should be Broadway musicals. The third song of every great musical is the character sitting alone explaining what they want. That's 'Part of Your World.' That structure — combined with Alan Menken's compositions — generated Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King, and turned Disney Animation into the most profitable creative engine in entertainment history.
The Lion King musical has been running for 30 years across Broadway, London's West End, and global touring companies. It has grossed over $11 billion in total revenue — more than Avatar, more than Avengers: Endgame, more than any album, more than any video game. It generates an average of $350 million in revenue every single year. Disney owns it outright.
The Flash Invaders app turns city streets into a treasure hunt, letting players scan Invader's hidden mosaics for points. Players have collectively logged over 47 million flashes. Unlike most mobile games that glue you to a screen, this one forces you to look up and engage with your surroundings.
New York draws thousands of young, talented performers every year chasing Broadway stardom — but the hard truth is that most of them never make it. Zelig Williams was one of the rare exceptions.
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