Speaker
Joshua Roberts
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1 episodes
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1
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In the Elm Wealth study, participants given tomorrow's headlines started with $50 and on average finished with just $51, barely breaking even despite having advance knowledge.
In the Elm Wealth experiment, one in six participants who had access to tomorrow's news headlines lost all of their money trading.
AI models tested in the same Elm Wealth experiment correctly predicted market direction 60% of the time, slightly better than humans, but still struggled with bet sizing.
All 5 expert macro traders recruited by Elm Wealth for the same experiment finished with profits and on average more than doubled their money.
In 12 years of Narendra Modi's government, not a single cabinet minister had ever resigned under public pressure — until now. A youth movement born from a single tweet about cockroaches forced the education minister out, marking a seismic shift in India's political culture.
Yash Mishra had been fasting for nine days when Kira Huju found him at the Delhi protest site. He called education as essential as water and said Modi's government had no viable policy to fix things. Asked what gave him energy, his answer was instant: 'Fear that we have induced in the government.'
Under a decade of BJP rule, publicly criticising Modi became something Indians feared. Now India's Gen Z has leapfrogged criticism entirely — they're cracking jokes about him. Kira Huju says that shift is potentially more politically fatal for Modi than any opposition party.
Markets don't move on events — they move on surprises versus expectations. If a great jobs report was already priced in, knowing it in advance is worthless. Participants in the Elm Wealth study called the market direction correctly only 51% of the time, barely above a coin flip.
AI models tested in the Elm Wealth experiment predicted market direction 60% of the time — better than humans — but made the same catastrophic mistake: they didn't calibrate bet sizes to their confidence. Even our supposed future overlords took too much risk when uncertain.
When Elm Wealth gave the same test to 5 expert macro traders, all five made money and on average more than doubled their stake. Their edge wasn't better prediction — it was disciplined bet sizing. On uncertain days they didn't trade at all. On high-conviction days they went all in.
Investors obsess over which stock or bond to buy. But the Elm Wealth study reveals the more important question is how much: calibrating bet size to confidence level. Getting this wrong is what caused ordinary participants — and AI models — to go bust even with tomorrow's headlines.
The anonymous French artist Invader has hidden 1,500 pixelated mosaic artworks across Paris alone, with thousands more scattered across 80+ cities — affixed to the Eiffel Tower, the Hollywood sign, and even sent to the International Space Station. He might be even busier than Banksy.
The Flash Invaders app turns city streets into a treasure hunt, letting players scan Invader's hidden mosaics for points. Players have collectively logged over 47 million flashes. Unlike most mobile games that glue you to a screen, this one forces you to look up and engage with your surroundings.
Tens of thousands — perhaps hundreds of thousands — marched on Delhi in India's largest protest in over half a decade. Students carried copies of the Constitution and dressed as Gandhi to pre-empt BJP accusations of anti-nationalism. Less than three hours later, riot police without name tags attacked them with sticks, tear gas, and pellet guns — a weapon previously reserved for conflict-ridden Kashmir.
Elm Wealth gave 120 participants tomorrow's Wall Street Journal front pages and asked them to trade stocks and bonds. The result was humbling: only half finished ahead, 1 in 6 went completely bust, and the average participant turned $50 into just $51. Knowing the news isn't enough — markets already price in expectations.
A single tweet — 'What if all cockroaches came together?' — posted by a student in Boston after India's Chief Justice appeared to compare jobless youth to cockroaches, spawned a satirical meme that mushroomed into a 27-million-follower movement. Underneath the AI images and Hindi rap was a very serious message about corruption, exam leaks, and a generation betrayed.
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