Investor Gavin Baker laid out a stark supply-demand mismatch for AI tokens: demand is growing 10x next year while supply grows only 3x. Frontier labs won't cut pre-training to free up capacity, so consumer prices are heading up.
Podbit · God Mode Podcast
Investor Gavin Baker laid out a stark supply-demand mismatch for AI tokens: demand is growing 10x next year while supply grows only 3x. Frontier labs won't cut pre-training to free up capacity, so consumer prices are heading up.
Where this was said
At 17:40 · chapter starts 15:02
Rik pulls up the token-cost chart that had been circulating on his timeline: Anthropic, OpenAI, Moonshot, Alibaba Qwen all show visible bars. DeepSeek V4 Flash is barely a sliver. The gap between proprietary subscriptions and DeepSeek's open-source API is so small that the subscriptions actually win on pure token value. But then the news drops mid-recording: DeepSeek has announced major API price increases. Ben unpacks the nuance — DeepSeek is open-source, so users can theoretically pull the model and run it elsewhere, meaning the official API hike is really about DeepSeek trying to make money rather than a fundamental model cost increase. Still, the direction of travel is clear: even the cheapest corner of the AI market is now moving toward monetisation, and the era of austerity pricing may be giving way to something more expensive across the board.
DeepSeek, previously so cheap its pricing barely registered on token-cost charts, announced significant API price increases mid-episode.
Gavin Baker argued on Invest Like the Best that AI token demand is growing 10x next year while supply is only growing 3x, implying prices must rise.
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Copy days of Discord chat history, paste it into ChatGPT, and ask it to list recurring pain points. The ones that come up most often are your best product bets.
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Directory listings are a powerful but underrated growth channel — but only if your product is genuinely interesting enough to earn the click. AI products have a natural advantage here because they're easy to package in a compelling, clickable way.
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