Podbit · Excess Returns
Investors are confusing the flow of new equipment orders with the growing stock of equipment already installed. For long-duration power infrastructure lasting 20–40 years, when the buildout ends, demand for new equipment can collapse to near zero even while the installed base keeps growing.
Where this was said
At 24:15 · chapter starts 18:37
Ian Smith discusses how the AI capex buildout is reshaping EM indexes, why picks-and-shovels is still the right place in the cycle, and why the $750B capex trajectory implies an inevitable fade. [1] — Ian Smith "Six major tech companies will spend around $750 billion on AI capex this year, growing 80% year-over-year. Extrapolate that to 2030 and you…" 21:10 [2] — Ian Smith "Investors are confusing the flow of new equipment orders with the growing stock of equipment already installed. For long-duration power inf…" 24:15
The 'fundamental stability' factor — a proxy for quality — has performed worse year-to-date in 2025 than at any point in MSCI EM history.
Six major tech companies will spend around $750 billion on AI capex this year, growing 80% year-over-year. Extrapolate that to 2030 and you get $8 trillion from just those companies. That can't happen — capex will fade, and investors need to be positioned for when it does.
The big 3 hyperscalers plus Meta, Oracle, and CoreWeave are expected to spend roughly $750 billion on AI capex in 2026, growing 80% year-over-year.
If current AI capex growth rates were sustained linearly to 2030 for just 6 companies, the cumulative spend would reach $8 trillion — which Ian Smith says is clearly unsustainable.
Sam had no coding knowledge, so he used ChatGPT voice mode to generate his entire codebase and copy-pasted it into Notepad. A friend later introduced him to Cursor, and he never looked back.
Copy days of Discord chat history, paste it into ChatGPT, and ask it to list recurring pain points. The ones that come up most often are your best product bets.
Sam's top advice: when prompting Cursor, tell it to architect code for 100,000 users from day one. The AI changes its approach, building scalable frameworks instead of brittle one-user code.
With AI coding tools like Cursor, Bhanu replicates an existing free tool for a new keyword in under 5 minutes. What used to be a multi-day build is now a lunch-break task.
Ahrefs, SiteGPT, Cal.com, PostHog, Datafast, Sibyl AI, Bento, Feather, Featurepace, Mintlify, Cloud Code, ChartMogul — Bhanu runs his entire business solo with these 12 tools.
PropGPT runs on React Native with TypeScript and Python for ML, Neon for the database, RevenueCat and Superwall for monetization. LLM costs are $20/month, data APIs $100/month, and after $10K in monthly marketing spend, margins sit at roughly 50%.
Game apps keep users engaged long enough for ads to pay off. Tool apps don't — so if you're building a utility, ads are almost always the wrong call and subscriptions are your only real lever.
Inside SEO Bot, a single button labelled 'Boost My Domain Rating' routes users directly to Listing Bot. That one interaction converts a user of one tool into a user of two — without any marketing cost.
Directory listings are a powerful but underrated growth channel — but only if your product is genuinely interesting enough to earn the click. AI products have a natural advantage here because they're easy to package in a compelling, clickable way.
We use essential and analytics cookies to run Vuci. To understand how the site is used: Privacy Policy.
Install Vuci on your phone
Add it to your home screen for a faster, app-like experience.
Install Vuci on your phone
Tap the Share button, then “Add to Home Screen”.
A new version is available
Reload to get the latest Vuci.