Podbit · Dwarkesh Podcast
The Borgias did everything right. Cesare built an empire through brilliant strategy. Then he got food poisoning at the exact wrong moment, and it all collapsed. Machiavelli's conclusion: that's not a reason not to imitate them. Fortune controls half of all outcomes. You evaluate deeds on their most probable result, not on how fortune intervened.
Marion Stokes ran nine properties and three storage units of VCRs, recording 24-hour news continuously from 1977 to 2012 — 71,000 tapes. She was right: that footage would have been lost otherwise. As Sony kills discs, TikTok ages, and source code rots, the question of who saves digital culture grows more urgent.
The GDR lasted longer than Nazi Germany, the Weimar Republic, and the German Empire — and yet it feels like a historical glitch. Fin and Horatio set up why East Germany is simultaneously the most improbable and fascinating state in modern European history.
At Yalta in February 1945, the Big Three carved up post-war Germany into zones of influence while the war was still ongoing. Stalin charmed everyone by bringing in an entire lemon tree for Roosevelt's martinis — the high watermark of American-Russian relations.
Stalin never really wanted East Germany — he just wanted a buffer zone. So he stripped it: a third of all industrial plants and $10 billion of agricultural and industrial goods were extracted in the first two years, ensuring the GDR's economy was crippled before it even started.
Walter Ulbricht didn't rise to lead East Germany through merit — he survived everything else. Nazi persecution, Stalin's purges of German communists in Moscow, the Spanish Civil War. By 1945, he was simply the only one left.
German efficiency is ideologically neutral — it's the ultimate wind-up toy. The GDR became the most successful communist state ever attempted, and West Germany became an economic miracle. The problem was never the German spirit; it was the direction it was pointed.
The Stasi's founders were the cockroach survivors of the twentieth century's worst decades — purged by Hitler, nearly purged by Stalin, battle-hardened by civil war. Their paranoia wasn't personal; it was institutional DNA. That's why the Stasi became something the KGB never was.
The Stasi had 91,000 full-time officers and 170,000 informal informers — one in every six East Germans. Throw a party and invite twelve guests: statistically two of them are reporting back. No secret police force in history came close to this penetration rate.
From 1979, the Stasi built a vast archive of citizens' odour samples stored in airtight glass jars — a library of smells used to train sniffer dogs for tracking dissidents. The German federal prosecutor was still dipping into this archive in 2007.
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