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Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan

Explore episode Jul 1, 2026
Business
Why Oil Prices Didn't Spike to $150 a Barrel

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan · Jul 1, 2026 Business

Energy experts predicted $150-per-barrel oil after the US-Iran war. They were wrong. Tommy Vietor walks through the real reasons: a weaker Chinese economy cutting 3 million barrels per day of demand, Trump bullying futures markets, countries tapping strategic reserves faster than expected, and tankers willing to run the gauntlet through the Strait.

Where this was said

US-Iran Ceasefire: Airstrikes, Doha Talks, and Strait Control

At 17:55 · chapter starts 12:55

Tommy details the week's timeline: Iran fires an attack drone at a tanker for taking the 'wrong' route through the Strait; the US retaliates by hitting Iranian missile and drone sites; Iran attacks another tanker; the US strikes again; Trump threatens on Truth Social that 'the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist'; the IRGC fires at US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, killing a Qatari national; then Witkoff and Kushner head to Doha for talks Iran says they only attend to discuss frozen assets. Ben Rhodes delivers the strategic verdict: Iran has secured something more valuable than nuclear deterrence — control of 20% of the world's energy supply, with a future fee-collection model in mind. Jennifer Griffin's Fox News reporting, commended by Rhodes for its quality, confirms the US had to restrike because Iran already rebuilt its missile defenses since the ceasefire — undermining any claim of lasting military victory. Tommy adds that tanker traffic is still only 70% of pre-war levels and the global oil cost to consumers was likely $60-70 billion in extra spending.

News
Iran Doesn't Need Nukes — It Has the Strait

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan · Jul 1, 2026 News

Iran's real strategic prize from the US-Iran conflict isn't sanctions relief or even a nuclear program — it's permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ben Rhodes argues that by establishing the right to regulate ship traffic and eventually charge fees, Iran has secured a revenue stream worth more than any temporary deal.

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