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Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan

Explore episode Jul 1, 2026

Health & Fitness

USAID Cuts Are Cumulative — The Death Toll Will Keep Rising

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan · Jul 1, 2026 Health & Fitness

The Lancet estimates 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030 from USAID cuts. A Boston University tracker puts current deaths above 780,000. Nicholas Kristof explains why these numbers are probably right in order of magnitude: the cuts also destroyed data collection systems, deaths are cumulative and lagged, and malnutrition combined with disease multiplies fatality rates over time.

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Nicholas Kristof: Death Toll Projections, Rebuilding USAID, and Israeli Prison Violence

At 1:21:57 · chapter starts 1:21:10

Tommy pushes Kristof on the large-scale mortality estimates. Kristof validates the methodology while flagging its limitation: USAID cuts also destroyed the data collection systems that would measure their own impact, and deaths are cumulative — people with HIV don't die immediately when ARVs stop, but their vulnerability compounds over months. He predicts 2026 mortality from the cuts will exceed 2025's toll. On rebuilding, Kristof argues for evidence-based programs with randomized controlled trials behind them, acknowledging that both parties have funded ideological pet projects — Democratic women's empowerment programs without evidence, Republican abstinence-only HIV programs — rather than proven interventions. He doesn't think moving USAID to State was necessarily fatal if it has internal support and funding. He identifies Sudan as the world's worst humanitarian crisis currently receiving almost no attention. He closes on the Israeli prison sexual violence investigation: the story started with a single Palestinian peace activist's account two years ago, grew into 14 independent corroborating testimonies from people unaware of each other, all describing assault by guards, settlers, and Shin Bet. Netanyahu called it 'one of the worst blood libelsl ever to appear in the modern press.' Kristof says the correct response would be to let the Red Cross into the prison system — something that hasn't happened.

Health & Fitness

Lancet study: 9.4M additional deaths by 2030

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan · Jul 1, 2026

A Lancet study estimated that 9.4 million additional deaths could occur by 2030 as a result of USAID cuts, while a Boston University tracker puts current deaths above 780,000.

That kind of recklessness was paired with a lack of empathy, a kind of an indifference to kids on a different continent. And that combination of recklessness and indifference has just been enormously lethal.

Nicholas Kristof

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazak…

News

How to Rebuild Foreign Aid After DOGE Destroyed It

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan · Jul 1, 2026 News

Rebuilding USAID doesn't require recreating it exactly as it was. Kristof argues the key is evidence-based programs with randomized controlled trials behind them — cutting both Democratic 'touchy-feely' empowerment programs without evidence and Republican abstinence-only HIV programs. Keep it at State if needed, but fund it and focus it on the places that need it most.

Americans think that about 20% of the federal budget goes to this kind of foreign assistance. In fact, it traditionally was about 1%. It's a tiny— it's $0.22 of every $100 of national income in the US that is going to this kind of aid.

Nicholas Kristof

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazak…

News

Kristof's Reporting on Israeli Prison Sexual Violence

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazakhstan · Jul 1, 2026 News

Nicholas Kristof describes how his investigation into Israeli prison sexual violence started with a single account from a Palestinian peace activist two years ago and grew into 14 independent, corroborating accounts of rape and assault by prison guards, settlers, and Shin Bet agents. Netanyahu called it a 'blood libel.' Kristof says the right response would be to let the Red Cross in.

I found 14 people, 14 different people who independently, unaware of each other, told me about having been sexually assaulted. And that pattern in prisons by settlers, by Shin Bet — I think it's what happens when you get a combination of dehumanization of Palestinians and anger at them and complete impunity.

Nicholas Kristof

Keeping Up With the Korruption in Kazak…

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