Every transformative technology mania starts with something real. But look at the companies that got in early on railroads, radio, or the internet: only 1 to 3 actually made serious money when all was said and done. The rest were wiped out. AI will not be different.
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At 11:59 · chapter starts 10:59
Jessica Mendoza and Spencer Jakab pivot to the systemic risk hiding behind the IPO excitement. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are all technology firms, and they collectively account for nearly 40% of the index's total value [1] — Spencer Jakab "The S&P 500's top 10 companies account for nearly 40% of the index — and every single one of them has an AI angle. That's a level of concen…" 10:59 . What makes 2026 uniquely dangerous, Jakab argues, is that every single one of those ten companies has an AI angle — Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Broadcom — creating a concentration around one single theme that not even the dot-com bubble matched. History offers a sobering pattern: every major technology mania, from railroads to radio to the internet, began with something real and transformative. But of the companies that rushed in early, only 1 to 3 ultimately made serious money for investors [2] — Spencer Jakab "Every transformative technology mania starts with something real. But look at the companies that got in early on railroads, radio, or the i…" 11:59 . Amazon is the exception that proved the rule; Pets.com is the rule itself.
The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are all tech companies and together represent nearly 40% of the index's total value.
The S&P 500's top 10 companies account for nearly 40% of the index — and every single one of them has an AI angle. That's a level of concentration around a single theme that not even the dot-com bubble achieved. If AI disappoints, there is no diversification hiding in the index.
Every one of the top 10 S&P 500 companies — including Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Broadcom — has some AI angle.
Looking at every major transformative technology — railroads, radio, the internet — only 1 to 3 early companies ultimately made serious money for investors.
Stock market wealth has never been a higher share of Americans' net worth than it is right now.
Ordinary index fund investors in 401(k)s and IRAs will be forced into exposure to new, loss-making AI companies as the IPOs get added to major indexes.
Passive index investing used to mean balanced exposure across banks, oil, manufacturers. Now it means heavy concentration in tech — and after the AI IPOs, ordinary retirement savers will be automatically exposed to unprofitable, unproven AI companies whether they chose that risk or not.
Kierkegaard lost five of six siblings and his mother before adulthood, grew up under a shame-ridden father, fell in love, proposed, then mailed back the ring and fled to Berlin. His inability to live up to his own most important commitment became the engine of his entire philosophical project.
Casanova escaped from Venice's inquisition prison, met Voltaire, Catherine the Great, Benjamin Franklin, and Mozart — then died completely alone in a Slovak castle, broke, telling stories to children who thought he was a crazy old man. His 2,000-page memoir sat unread for decades. A life full of fireworks that meant nothing.
Factories that replaced coal engines with electric ones in the early 1900s got only 6% efficiency gains. Those that redesigned their entire factory around electricity got a 3x productivity improvement. Swapping AI tools into your existing structure will give you 6%. Rebuilding around AI will give you 10x.
Lebanese terrorists backed by Iran were holding American hostages throughout the Reagan presidency. Reagan had loudly campaigned against negotiating with terrorists — putting him in an impossible position that his team quietly decided to ignore.
During the Iran-Iraq War, the US openly supplied Iraq with weapons, training, and intelligence. At the same time, Oliver North was secretly funneling missiles to Iran. The US was playing both sides of a shooting war.
Oliver North traveled to Iran under the alias 'William P. Goode' with a fake passport. CIA Director William Casey allegedly gave him cyanide pills so he could kill himself rather than be tortured if captured. He returned safely and the deal moved forward.
The Pentagon sold missiles to the CIA for $3,700 each. The CIA sold them to Richard Secord at cost. Secord sold them to Iranian middleman Ghorbanifar for $10,000 each. Ghorbanifar charged Iran even more. The profit — including $3 million in interest in one Swiss account — was diverted directly to fund the Nicaraguan Contras.
America secretly transferred 2,000 missiles and missile parts to Iran in 8 shipments over more than a year. Only 3 of 7 hostages were released. Three more were taken. The net result was zero freed hostages and a full-blown constitutional scandal.
On October 5, 1986, a CIA Contra supply plane flew a weapons drop at 2,500 feet in broad daylight. A Sandinista soldier shot it down. The only survivor, Eugene Hasenfuss, had borrowed a parachute from his skydiving brother. He was captured, paraded in front of cameras, and told the Sandinistas everything he knew.
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