Podbit · The Bulwark Podcast
Trump has always been more hawkish on Iran than his own advisors, and he went into the war believing it would be over in days, the way the Venezuela operation was swift and clean. He was warned about depleted munitions and a closed Strait of Hormuz. He went anyway. Now he wants out.
Marco Rubio is going after the International Criminal Court — not just opposing it, but actively working to tear it down. He says the ICC wages war on the U.S. through law, not weapons, and that American service members could face prosecution. Critics note the court was built precisely for countries that refuse accountability.
Netanyahu's coalition is racing to pass bills that would weaken Israel's top prosecutor, shield ultra-orthodox men from draft enforcement, and reduce media regulator power. Civil rights advocates say the bills would severely undermine Israel's democracy ahead of October elections.
NYC Mayor Mamdani asked residents not to set AC below 74°F during a heat wave — Taylor Swift apparently ignored this entirely for her MSG wedding. Matt McCusker sees it as a potential 'totalitarian tiptoe': a small compliance test to gauge how much control the government can actually wield.
The bottom 50% of US earners contribute just 1% of all federal income tax. The top 1% pay roughly 30%. Most people, including a socialist guest on Caleb's show, believe the wealthy pay nothing. The US is actually the most progressive major Western nation for income taxation — what it lacks is a VAT.
Social Security is projected to make a mandatory 25% cut by 2032 as the fund depletes and only incoming contributions cover outgoing benefits. The worker-to-retiree ratio has collapsed from roughly 100:1 when Social Security started to something close to 10:1 today. Nothing has been seriously reformed since Reagan.
Plan A involves four principles: slow AI development to a safer pace; require total research transparency so governments and scientists can verify safety claims; actively encourage multiple competing companies across multiple countries rather than a monopoly; and build new data centres so that if the deal breaks down, they can be destroyed to prevent an even worse race. Kokotajlo thinks it's possible but not likely without major public pressure.
If Apple can lock AI agents behind Siri with exclusive access to the iPhone's semantic index — your emails, messages, and calendar — no third-party AI can compete. Patrick Beja, once skeptical of EU intervention, now argues forced openness is the only way to ensure the next computing platform isn't monopolized by default.
Four U.S. states have calculated potential Meta youth-safety penalties of $1.4 trillion — nearly Meta's entire market cap. Patrick Beja frames the trial not as regulatory overreach but as a direct parallel to Big Tobacco: internal evidence shows Meta knew its algorithms harmed children and chose revenue over safety.
New Mexico AG Raul Torres sent letters, attempted calls, and submitted formal requests to the DOJ for 130 days — and received nothing but verbal promises. The DOJ told Reuters it 'stands ready to help' while ignoring every specific outreach attempt.
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