Podbit · The Bulwark Podcast
Trump plans a major July 4th speech on the National Mall in 104-to-107-degree heat with no chairs and possibly no water allowed. Susan Glasser predicts low turnout and a pre-written crowd-size grievance Truth Social post to follow. Tim Miller notes the festivities have been so sparse that a man in an Uncle Sam costume got arrested mid-livestream.
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At 45:20 · chapter starts 42:40
Tim Miller flags two signals of potential instability in Russia: a multimillion-dollar Polymarket bet that Putin will be removed from power this year, and the suspicious death of former defense minister Sergey Ivanov, one of Putin's closest allies [1] — Susan Glasser "Russia: 1.4 million casualties in Ukraine war: Latest estimates put Russian casualties — deaths and serious injuries — at 1.4 million, maki…" 43:03 . Susan Glasser provides the historical framing: Ivanov was initially seen as Putin's potential successor, and the world might have been very different had Putin chosen him over Dmitry Medvedev as placeholder. She then delivers the episode's most striking data point: Russia has suffered approximately 1.4 million casualties in Ukraine, surpassing the Napoleonic Wars and making this Russia's deadliest conflict since WWII. The human capital catastrophe carries inherent political instability — but Glasser cautions that hardliners who believe Putin isn't being aggressive enough might be even worse for the world than Putin himself. The scenarios on the table for Russia, she says, are 'bad to worse.'
Russia has suffered an estimated 1.4 million casualties in Ukraine — deaths and serious injuries combined. This surpasses the Napoleonic Wars and is Russia's deadliest conflict since WWII. Susan Glasser argues this level of human destruction carries inherent instability, but warns that hardline successors to Putin could be even worse.
Latest estimates put Russian casualties — deaths and serious injuries — at 1.4 million, making it the deadliest war in Russian history after WWI and WWII.
The Ukraine war has now surpassed the Napoleonic Wars in Russian casualties, with only WWI and WWII being deadlier for Russia in its entire history.
Ten years ago, 90% of tech media coverage was relentlessly negative and Kalanick felt he couldn't speak freely. Today, the rise of independent podcasters and Elon Musk buying Twitter has fundamentally changed the game — and it's why he's finally willing to talk.
Kay Classman, 28, was arrested for repeatedly posing as a 16-year-old and enrolling in Bronx high schools across multiple districts. She wasn't a predator — just someone so sad and lonely she wanted her lost childhood back. That's somehow sadder.
Disney, Meta, and Paramount have collectively paid Trump roughly $60 million to settle what Galloway calls nuisance lawsuits — all routed to his presidential library. Newsrooms are folding. The White House is handpicking press pool participants. This is what the end of a free press looks like.
One cheap fake documentary made by a teenager in his mother's basement convinced 16% of Americans that 9/11 was an inside job. Social media didn't invent conspiracy — it just gave it a rocket engine.
A progressive organization with a stated mission to destroy Turning Point USA received millions from ActBlue and is now publicly pushing the narrative that TPUSA insiders and Israel murdered Charlie Kirk. Andrew Wilson traced the network of accounts all amplifying the same conspiracy in perfect unison.
The microphone-bomb theory fails on every physical front: no smoke, no ignition, mic on the wrong side of the wound. And the .30-06 rifle round used is extensively documented by the US Army — it does not always produce a through-and-through wound. Wilson argues this is a well-studied projectile with well-understood behavior.
Andrew Wilson publicly offered Candace Owens $300,000 to debate her theory that Israel and TPUSA murdered Charlie Kirk. She refused. He argues that flat-earthers will debate anyone, but Kirk conspiracy theorists won't defend their claims under scrutiny.
Erika Kirk became the CEO of TPUSA while grieving her husband's murder in public, and now faces tens of thousands accusing her of conspiring to kill him. Andrew Wilson calls it mind-boggling psychological torture. The sparklers at the memorial weren't suspicious — they were a grieving widow doing her best in an impossible situation.
Joe Rogan and Andrew Wilson watch a bystander video of the Corey Ruiz police shooting in Madison, Wisconsin live on air. The video is so blurry they initially think a female officer fired the fatal shots. They later learn a male officer did, after Ruiz allegedly pulled a knife and stabbed officers. Their conclusion: you cannot have a hot take on a story you don't understand yet.
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