Podbit · My First Million
AI will expose investors whose talents don't match their claims, just as indexation did to most active managers. But there will always be novel situations with no historical data to train on — and that's where human judgment with 'hair on its neck' still matters.
China's economy grew just over 4% in Q2 2026, the slowest pace in more than three years. While export booms in AI goods and electric vehicles offered partial support, youth unemployment and weak domestic demand exposed deep structural cracks — and Beijing's own target is now the least ambitious since 1991.
The idea that house flipping is dead is flat-out wrong. What died is the forgiving, low-skill version — the era when even bad flippers made money. For disciplined investors, today's market is full of opportunity precisely because fearful competitors have stepped back.
In 2021, all renovated properties could be lumped together and priced similarly. Not anymore. Today's buyers are hyper-picky, rewarding only the highest-quality finishes and design. Using the top comp as your ARV when your product doesn't match it is the fastest way to lose money.
Henry Washington uses a simple but powerful ARV framework: get a zone (high, mid, low) from an agent, then underwrite at the mid-to-low end. Factor in two price drops, $10k in closing cost assistance, and two extra months of hold time before making your offer. If the numbers still work, it's a deal.
Dominique Gunderson got her real estate license in early 2025 and it changed her business. Saving 2.5% on every listing adds up to hundreds of thousands of dollars per year across a 10–12 flip portfolio. The bonus: direct buyer feedback that sharpens every future renovation decision.
Most flippers only budget for closing costs on the sale. That's only half the picture. Failing to account for purchase-side closing costs is one of the most common and costly underwriting errors, quietly eroding margins that were already razor thin.
Dominique Gunderson has found that 70 to 80 percent of her rehab projects produce a surprise cost of $10,000 or more. The key insight: this isn't bad luck, it's predictable. Knowing surprises are coming means you can budget for them — and a 10% contingency on a fully inspected project is the floor.
Contractors raise prices. Crew members disappear. Henry Washington's solution: always underwrite to market-rate renovation costs, never to the discounted rates your personal contractors give you. If you get the deal done cheaper, that's upside. If your guy bails, you're not underwater.
Henry Washington ties his profit target directly to his renovation budget. Spend $100k on rehab, need $100k in profit. Spend $60k, need $60k back. The logic: bigger renovations carry more risk, more moving parts, and more hidden surprises — so they should deliver proportionately more reward.
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