Podbit · Excess Returns
Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over both the last 12 months and year-to-date — a narrative violation almost nobody is talking about. Equal-weight indexes, small caps, and value are all signaling the same thing: a market leadership shift away from large-cap growth may already be in progress.
Where this was said
At 9:17 · chapter starts 8:22
Small caps have quietly outperformed Mag 7 over the last 12 months. Carlisle tracks equal-weight vs. cap-weight indexes and the S&P 100 vs. 500 as barometers of a leadership rotation. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "Small caps outperformed Mag 7 in 2025: Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over the last 12 months and year-to-date, a fact Carl…" 09:17
Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over the last 12 months and year-to-date, a fact Carlisle calls a narrative violation most investors don't know.
The current large-cap growth market dominance has persisted for over 10 years since 2015, preceding a potential extended value market cycle.
The spread between the most expensive and most undervalued stocks is in the 95th percentile, meaning it has only been wider on 5% of historical occasions.
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People buy from people they know, like, and trust. YouTube is the only platform that builds all three at scale — and Vasco's $1M business is the proof of concept.
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