Value/growth spread at 95th percentile
The spread between the most expensive and most undervalued stocks is in the 95th percentile, meaning it has only been wider on 5% of historical occasions.
Snapshot · Excess Returns
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Explore episode
Jun 20, 2026
Where this was said
Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal
At 13:40 · chapter starts 8:22
Small caps have quietly outperformed Mag 7 over the last 12 months. Carlisle tracks equal-weight vs. cap-weight indexes and the S&P 100 vs. 500 as barometers of a leadership rotation. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "Small caps outperformed Mag 7 in 2025: Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over the last 12 months and year-to-date, a fact Carl…" 09:17
Small caps outperformed Mag 7 in 2025
Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over the last 12 months and year-to-date, a fact Carlisle calls a narrative violation most investors don't know.
Small Caps Are Already Beating Mag 7 — And Most Investors Don't Know It
Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over both the last 12 months and year-to-date — a narrative violation almost nobody is talking about. Equal-weight indexes, small caps, and value are all signaling the same thing: a market leadership shift away from large-cap growth may already be in progress.
Large-cap growth market since 2015
The current large-cap growth market dominance has persisted for over 10 years since 2015, preceding a potential extended value market cycle.
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