Podbit · Excess Returns
Value investing has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the current tech boom — the underperformance is concentrated in disrupted sectors. The challenge is identifying disrupted industries in advance. For non-disrupted businesses trading at discounts, value metrics have been remarkably reliable.
Where this was said
At 40:08 · chapter starts 37:57
Kai Wu's research shows value has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the tech boom. Carlisle explains the earnings recession in small/micro from 2022-2025 and why it's bottoming. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "Small/micro earnings recession 2022–2025: US small, micro, and mid-cap companies experienced an earnings recession from 2022 through late 2…" 41:10
US small, micro, and mid-cap companies experienced an earnings recession from 2022 through late 2024/early 2025, with earnings falling or trading sideways while large-cap earnings rose.
Energy stocks represent just 3% of market cap versus a 12% historical average. AI data centers will consume energy voraciously, and Carlisle thinks nuclear is the only long-term solution — though natural gas bridges the gap. Oil equities are doing the opposite of what everyone expects right now.
Avnish grew his solo business to $25,000 per month in just 15 months without spending a dollar on ads. His entire growth engine was built on community posts in Reddit and Facebook groups.
One well-crafted post in the right community took Avnish from single thousands of users to tens of thousands. This wasn't luck — it was a repeatable part of his 5-step playbook.
Most founders chase paid ads and influencer deals, but Avnish's growth came entirely from knowing where his users already gathered online. Dominating Reddit and Facebook groups — for free — was his entire strategy.
Spend 80% of your landing page design time above the fold. The hero section is the only thing most visitors will ever truly read, so it needs to deliver your full message instantly.
The dominant mobile monetization flow is simple: free download, onboarding, then a hard paywall that blocks all features until the user pays or starts a trial. It's unskippable by design — and that's exactly the point.
Switching PuffCount to a hard paywall and requiring a free trial before any feature access sent conversion rates soaring to 20–25%. One structural change to the payment flow — no new features, no new users — transformed the business.
Vasco is so confident in YouTube that he'll personally PayPal $500 to anyone who posts for 45 days and doesn't make $5,000. This isn't hype — it's a distillation of his own experience growing an AI app to $70K/month using nothing but daily videos.
Vasco's AI app went from zero to $70,000 a month in just two years. The entire growth engine was YouTube — one video a day, nothing fancy, no expensive tools. Most of his users came directly from the channel.
People buy from people they know, like, and trust. YouTube is the only platform that builds all three at scale — and Vasco's $1M business is the proof of concept.
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