Snapshot · Excess Returns
US small, micro, and mid-cap companies experienced an earnings recession from 2022 through late 2024/early 2025, with earnings falling or trading sideways while large-cap earnings rose.
Where this was said
At 41:10 · chapter starts 37:57
Kai Wu's research shows value has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the tech boom. Carlisle explains the earnings recession in small/micro from 2022-2025 and why it's bottoming. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "Small/micro earnings recession 2022–2025: US small, micro, and mid-cap companies experienced an earnings recession from 2022 through late 2…" 41:10
Value investing has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the current tech boom — the underperformance is concentrated in disrupted sectors. The challenge is identifying disrupted industries in advance. For non-disrupted businesses trading at discounts, value metrics have been remarkably reliable.
Energy stocks represent just 3% of market cap versus a 12% historical average. AI data centers will consume energy voraciously, and Carlisle thinks nuclear is the only long-term solution — though natural gas bridges the gap. Oil equities are doing the opposite of what everyone expects right now.
Avnish's solopreneur business reached $25,000 per month in revenue using a community-driven, zero-ad-spend marketing strategy.
Avnish scaled his business from zero to $25K/month in just 15 months using a single core marketing strategy.
Avnish acquired thousands of users without spending any money on marketing, relying entirely on Reddit and Facebook groups.
One specific Reddit or Facebook post was responsible for taking Avnish's user base from single thousands to tens of thousands.
Avnish developed a 5-step process specifically for finding early users through Facebook groups and Reddit communities.
Focus 80% of your landing page design effort on the hero section — the first thing visitors see when they open the website.
The hero section must convey the product's complete value proposition on its own, so visitors instantly understand what it is.
Visitors decide whether to stay or leave within just a few seconds, so immediate clarity is essential on any landing page.
Highlighting time savings, money savings, or a painful problem solved in the headline and subheading is the core conversion lever.
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