Snapshot · Excess Returns
US small, micro, and mid-cap companies experienced an earnings recession from 2022 through late 2024/early 2025, with earnings falling or trading sideways while large-cap earnings rose.
Where this was said
At 41:10 · chapter starts 37:57
Kai Wu's research shows value has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the tech boom. Carlisle explains the earnings recession in small/micro from 2022-2025 and why it's bottoming. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "Small/micro earnings recession 2022–2025: US small, micro, and mid-cap companies experienced an earnings recession from 2022 through late 2…" 41:10
Value investing has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the current tech boom — the underperformance is concentrated in disrupted sectors. The challenge is identifying disrupted industries in advance. For non-disrupted businesses trading at discounts, value metrics have been remarkably reliable.
Energy stocks represent just 3% of market cap versus a 12% historical average. AI data centers will consume energy voraciously, and Carlisle thinks nuclear is the only long-term solution — though natural gas bridges the gap. Oil equities are doing the opposite of what everyone expects right now.
Sam built Algrow from zero to $14,000 in monthly revenue within just six months of shipping his first MVP.
Algrow reached over 10,000 users in roughly six months, driven almost entirely by organic Discord community growth.
Sam acquired his first 400 users entirely through Discord communities, without paid advertising or traditional outreach.
Algrow added exactly 480 new paying customers in its most recent month, demonstrating strong ongoing growth.
Sam's Stripe dashboard showed over £10,000 in revenue in the last four weeks, equivalent to roughly $13,000–$14,000 USD.
Sam gave all early users free access so they could show the tool to friends, turning them into live demos and advocates who helped the product spread virally.
By silently screen-sharing his tool in Discord voice chats rather than posting links, Sam attracted curiosity without violating no-self-promo server rules.
Before building Algrow, Sam and two friends made over $10,000 in revenue through affiliate marketing for RizzApp by posting faceless texting story content.
Bhanu grew SiteGPT to $13,000 monthly recurring revenue entirely through organic channels, spending nothing on paid marketing.
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