Excess Returns

Podbit · Excess Returns

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

Explore episode Jun 20, 2026
Business
How Carlisle Builds the ZIG and DEEP Portfolios

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

The process is grounded entirely in financial statements: look at what a company earns on assets, its reinvestment rate, and its payout policy over 5-10 years. Combine with the Acquirer's Multiple (which includes balance sheet items) to find the best risk-adjusted opportunities. Equal weight everything because you can't know in advance which names will deliver.

Where this was said

How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios

At 51:00 · chapter starts 47:50

Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers.

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