Quote · Excess Returns
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Where this was said
How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios
At 50:28 · chapter starts 47:50
Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "The process is grounded entirely in financial statements: look at what a company earns on assets, its reinvestment rate, and its payout pol…" 51:00
Semiconductors as a group were trading at 55 times earnings, implying that 75% of the sector's value is in terminal value 10+ years out, requiring 16.5% annual growth for a decade.
The process is grounded entirely in financial statements: look at what a company earns on assets, its reinvestment rate, and its payout policy over 5-10 years. Combine with the Acquirer's Multiple (which includes balance sheet items) to find the best risk-adjusted opportunities. Equal weight everything because you can't know in advance which names will deliver.
