Podbit · My First Million
Dalio's bubble gauge — which tracks valuation, leverage, sentiment, and other signals back to 1900 — currently sits at 75% of the extreme peaks seen in both 1929 and 2000. High, but it won't tell you the timing. The prick of the bubble is usually a tightening of monetary policy.
The Nasdaq jumped 1.9%, its biggest gain among major indices, powered almost entirely by a rip in semiconductor stocks. Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital each surged up to 14.3% as investors rotated back into the AI trade.
Alphabet and Tesla headline tomorrow's after-bell earnings, joined by IBM, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, GE Vernova, and AT&T. Philip Morris reports before the open — one of the busiest single days of earnings season.
Every major index closed higher on the day. The Nasdaq led at 1.9%, followed by the Russell at 1.5%, the S&P at 0.9%, and the Dow at 0.7% — a broad risk-on session driven by AI and semiconductor optimism.
SpaceX reports its first post-IPO earnings on August 4th — and the clock immediately starts on a massive insider unlock. Up to 911.5 million shares, representing 20% of eligible locked-up stock, become sellable on August 6th, with a potential additional 10% freed if the stock holds 30% above IPO price.
Short interest in SpaceX has surged from roughly 6% of the public float just a month ago to 32% today, representing $25 billion in notional bearish bets. That's despite CEO Elon Musk warning short sellers they 'won't survive.'
Mark O'Brien paid just $5,500 for a 180-year-old West Village brownstone and expects to sell it for $17 million after putting in roughly $6,000. The catch? He's been waiting 2.5 years just to get permits — and the clock is always running.
The biggest threat to Mark O'Brien's business isn't construction costs or market downturns — it's time. Carrying a property for years while waiting for landmark approvals quietly destroys profit margins, and it's getting worse.
Mark didn't get into real estate through careful planning — desperation drove him in. Overleveraged with 2.5 kids and a house he had no business owning in Greenwich, Connecticut, he bet everything on flipping brownstones and made it work.
Mark O'Brien's early deal-sourcing strategy had nothing to do with real estate agents. He'd push three kids in a stroller, approach old ladies about buying their homes, slip notes into mailboxes, and treat the whole thing as a pure numbers game.
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