Quote · Excess Returns
Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
Where this was said
Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer
At 57:05 · chapter starts 54:00
Andy's summer watchlist: Warsh builds credibility without acting, tariffs quietly expire July 24, AI CapEx flows with no ROI clarity, and equity issuance tests market absorption capacity. [1] — Andy Constan "Four things matter this summer: the new Fed chair builds credibility without acting, tariffs quietly expire on July 24 unless renewed, AI C…" 56:30
Andy Constan argued the US has been in an inflationary environment for 5 to 6 years with no sign central banks are willing to do anything meaningful about it.
Jalen Brunson signed a 4-year deal instead of 5, taking $113 million less, enabling the Knicks to build a championship-winning roster.
Four things matter this summer: the new Fed chair builds credibility without acting, tariffs quietly expire on July 24 unless renewed, AI CapEx keeps flowing with no return-on-investment clarity in 2026, and equity issuance continues to test how much supply the market can absorb.
Current tariffs are set to disappear automatically by July 24th unless actively renewed or replaced by the administration.
The Fed has mismanaged its balance sheet from the beginning, and that's a primary reason inflation persists. Warsh wants to lower short rates while running the balance sheet off — Bessant and Miran agree. But institutional resistance inside the Fed is fierce, and any change will take years of small tweaks.
