Tariffs expire July 24 unless renewed
Current tariffs are set to disappear automatically by July 24th unless actively renewed or replaced by the administration.
Snapshot · Excess Returns
Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
Explore episode
Jun 16, 2026
Where this was said
Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer
At 58:00 · chapter starts 54:00
Andy's summer watchlist: Warsh builds credibility without acting, tariffs quietly expire July 24, AI CapEx flows with no ROI clarity, and equity issuance tests market absorption capacity. [1] — Andy Constan "Four things matter this summer: the new Fed chair builds credibility without acting, tariffs quietly expire on July 24 unless renewed, AI C…" 56:30
Inflation persisting 5–6 years
Andy Constan argued the US has been in an inflationary environment for 5 to 6 years with no sign central banks are willing to do anything meaningful about it.
Jalen Brunson took $113M less
Jalen Brunson signed a 4-year deal instead of 5, taking $113 million less, enabling the Knicks to build a championship-winning roster.
What Andy Is Watching This Summer
Four things matter this summer: the new Fed chair builds credibility without acting, tariffs quietly expire on July 24 unless renewed, AI CapEx keeps flowing with no return-on-investment clarity in 2026, and equity issuance continues to test how much supply the market can absorb.
Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed's Balance Sheet Problem
The Fed has mismanaged its balance sheet from the beginning, and that's a primary reason inflation persists. Warsh wants to lower short rates while running the balance sheet off — Bessant and Miran agree. But institutional resistance inside the Fed is fierce, and any change will take years of small tweaks.
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