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196. Trump’s Iran Deal: One Big American Failure?
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Breaking Down the Trump-Iran Ceasefire Deal
At 9:06 · chapter starts 3:18
The weekend's big news is a ceasefire announcement: mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, a two-page memorandum of understanding will be signed on Friday, opening a 60-day window in which the Strait of Hormuz reopens and nuclear negotiations begin. But Katty Kay's pre-show calls with former Iran negotiators painted a sobering picture — open-ended talks will almost certainly blow past the 60-day deadline, Iran will retain greater control of the strait, and any final deal will look remarkably like the JCPOA Obama negotiated over 20 months across 150 pages [1] — Katty Kay "No serious analyst Katty Kay spoke to believes America is better off than it was on February 27th. Iran now has more control of the Strait …" 04:30 . She also notes that before the bombing campaign, Iran was already offering on February 27th to degrade its highly enriched uranium and ship it out of the country — suggesting the war may not have improved America's opening position at all. The episode's most memorable coinage arrives here: Katty diagnoses Trump with 'Obama Derangement Syndrome,' arguing his entire Iran policy is driven by the compulsion to outshine Barack Obama's deal rather than any strategic logic [2] — Katty Kay "I think that Donald Trump has Obama Derangement Syndrome, and that's what a lot of this was all about." 04:17 .
Trump's core problem with any Iran deal is having to sell it as better than Obama's JCPOA — a 150-page agreement negotiated over 20 months with watertight verification. The new deal is two pages and counting. Katty Kay diagnoses this as Obama Derangement Syndrome.
No serious analyst Katty Kay spoke to believes America is better off than it was on February 27th. Iran now has more control of the Strait of Hormuz, the deal looks nearly identical to the Obama-era JCPOA, and the $700 billion global economic disruption was for nothing.
The memorandum of understanding starts a 60-day period during which the Strait of Hormuz reopens and nuclear negotiations begin — but analysts expect talks to blow past that deadline.
Obama's JCPOA nuclear deal was 150 pages long and took 20 months to negotiate, with exhaustive verification processes — the new deal is a two-page memo.
Scaramucci steelmans the White House position: the strait reopens, oil prices fall, and $300–$400 billion in frozen Iranian assets give both sides an incentive to deal. But he immediately concedes the real price: America's Gulf alliances are disrupted and China grows stronger.
Anthony Scaramucci estimates Trump will ultimately release $300–$400 billion in frozen Iranian assets as part of any final deal.
Before the bombing campaign, on February 27th, Iran was already offering to degrade its highly enriched uranium and ship it out of the country — a deal arguably better than what emerged.
