Quote · The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
OpenAI Whistleblower FINALLY Speaks: “AI Has A 70% Chance Of Going Horribly Wrong!“
Where this was said
Why the Average Person Should Care About AI
At 7:27 · chapter starts 4:01
Kokotajlo begins the formal interview by defining his mission: if superintelligence is coming in a few years, civilisation needs to prepare. His median estimate puts it at 2029, with a strong probability it happens before the end of the decade. He grounds this not just in technical progress but in economic data: Anthropic grew from roughly $1 billion to $60 billion in annual revenue in a single year — a 60x increase he describes as possibly the fastest in corporate history. Even if that rate slows dramatically, the company is on track to rival the entire global economy by 2030. He explains why the average person should care: superintelligence will affect absolutely everything, could kill people, could eliminate jobs, could enable the rise of oligarchs, or could trigger geopolitical conflict. He describes the 'scary open secret' — that ensuring a superintelligent AI actually has the values you want is currently just a hope, not a solved problem. He distinguishes AGI (broad capability, arguably already here) from superintelligence (better than any human at everything, faster and cheaper), and discusses the coming overlap with robotics.
Daniel Kokotajlo's 50% probability estimate for the arrival of superintelligence is currently 2029, with a strong possibility it happens by end of the decade.
Anthropic grew from roughly $1 billion to $60 billion in annual revenue in a single year, which Kokotajlo describes as possibly the fastest growth in history for a company of that size.
Even if Anthropic's extraordinary growth rate slows considerably, current projections suggest the company could match the size of the entire global economy by around 2030.
