The Ben Shapiro Show

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BREAKING: 2 Americans Killed by Iran, Tate Brothers ARRESTED

Explore episode Jul 19, 2026

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Why Iran Won't Strike Israel: The Deterrence Lesson

At 3:48 · chapter starts 3:40

Iran's strike pattern reveals a telling asymmetry: it is hitting US bases and allies in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, and Jordan — everywhere except Israel. Shapiro argues the explanation is straightforward: Israel has made it unmistakably clear that any Iranian strike will be answered not with pinprick responses but with regime-ending force. Israel might target the South Pars gas field, key strategic resources, senior regime figures — even Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's son, who is rumored to have already fled the country. Iran knows this calculation and acts accordingly. For Shapiro, this dynamic encapsulates the fundamental rule of the Middle East: outcomes are determined not by negotiations or strategic diplomacy but by who can generate a credible threat of force. Israel has done that; the United States, he implies, needs to do the same.

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