Quote · Excess Returns
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Where this was said
OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin's base rates
At 32:50 · chapter starts 31:00
Mauboussin's base rate paper showed OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented; Anthropic's actual growth then obliterated those projections. Time Magazine's AI cover may signal a market top. [1] — Jack "Michael Mauboussin's base rate framework showed that OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented in corporate history. Then Anthropi…" 33:45
SpaceX is valued at over $2 trillion, implying a price-to-sales multiple of 150 to 200 times, which requires unprecedented growth assumptions.
Michael Mauboussin's base rate framework showed that OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented in corporate history. Then Anthropic came along and obliterated those already-unprecedented projections. The tech giants keep breaking the models used to value them.
