SpaceX: 150–200x sales valuation
SpaceX is valued at over $2 trillion, implying a price-to-sales multiple of 150 to 200 times, which requires unprecedented growth assumptions.
Snapshot · Excess Returns
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Explore episode
Jun 20, 2026
Where this was said
OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin's base rates
At 33:33 · chapter starts 31:00
Mauboussin's base rate paper showed OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented; Anthropic's actual growth then obliterated those projections. Time Magazine's AI cover may signal a market top. [1] — Jack "Michael Mauboussin's base rate framework showed that OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented in corporate history. Then Anthropi…" 33:45
Mauboussin's Base Rates vs. Anthropic's Actual Growth
Michael Mauboussin's base rate framework showed that OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented in corporate history. Then Anthropic came along and obliterated those already-unprecedented projections. The tech giants keep breaking the models used to value them.
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