Snapshot · My First Million
GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic are currently generating approximately $79 billion per year in revenue, roughly double the ~$40 billion generated by AI companies.
Where this was said
At 1:13:29 · chapter starts 1:12:30
Shaan fires four topic areas at Pabrai in quick succession, and each answer is a compact illustration of the mental models discussed earlier in the episode [1] — Mohnish Pabrai "S&P 500: bearish, agrees with Howard Marks that elevated P/E ratios mean near-zero forward returns for a decade. GLP-1 drugs: too hard pile…" 1:10:20 . On AI: invest in the pickaxe makers — TSMC, ASML, Micron — not the gold-rush players like Alphabet and Meta who are committing to massive CapEx in a game they haven't played before. On the S&P: bearish, agreeing with Howard Marks's analysis that a P/E of ~23 has historically implied near-zero forward 10-year returns. On GLP-1 drugs: $79 billion in annual revenue versus AI's $40 billion, genuinely transformative, but the competitive dynamics change too fast — Wegovy was king, then Mounjaro, now tablets. Too hard. On SaaS: the market has it wrong. Coding is at most one-fifth of what software is, and incumbents like Adobe will reduce costs using AI while keeping cash flows intact. The advantage goes to the incumbents, not the disruptors. Constellation Software is the Pabrai bet in this space. On Bitcoin: too hard pile, outside circle of competence, and given that gold already exists, why do we need it?
Constellation Software buys ~200 small vertical software companies per year, pays 5-6x cash flow, and compounds them at 20-25% annually. No banker, no synergies pitch — just delegated M&A touching 70,000 companies twice a year. Nobody can clone it, which is exactly why it works.
The U.S. Surgeon General's 2023 report on loneliness found that half of American adults report feeling lonely, marking a widespread epidemic of social isolation.
In a peer-reviewed study, Brain.fm's audio technology was shown to increase focus-related brainwave activity by 119%, according to the show's sponsor read.
The Easterlin Paradox shows that wealthier nations — and the wealthiest neighborhoods within them — tend to have the highest rates of anxiety, depression, loneliness, and suicide.
Mental health challenges are nearly universal — BetterHelp's own research found the majority of Americans experiencing symptoms right now.
When applying for Medicaid to cover nursing home costs, there is a 5-year look-back period that can disqualify applicants who gave away or spent down assets.
A broken pipe filled the Bad Friends studio with what the hosts identified as hydrogen sulfide — microscopic fecal aeroparticles — that the crew denied smelling.
Fei-Fei Li's father's liver surgery performed by a da Vinci robot resulted in 10 times less blood loss than a typical open liver surgery, thanks to laparoscopic precision.
Approximately 115 million adults in the US currently have prediabetes, most of whom are unaware, according to the Lingo sponsor segment.
Drug overdose deaths in the US fell from 110,000 to 80,000 in 2024, and then to roughly 70,000 — the largest single-year drop the CDC has ever recorded.
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