Snapshot · My First Million
GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic are currently generating approximately $79 billion per year in revenue, roughly double the ~$40 billion generated by AI companies.
Where this was said
At 1:13:29 · chapter starts 1:12:30
Shaan fires four topic areas at Pabrai in quick succession, and each answer is a compact illustration of the mental models discussed earlier in the episode [1] — Mohnish Pabrai "S&P 500: bearish, agrees with Howard Marks that elevated P/E ratios mean near-zero forward returns for a decade. GLP-1 drugs: too hard pile…" 1:10:20 . On AI: invest in the pickaxe makers — TSMC, ASML, Micron — not the gold-rush players like Alphabet and Meta who are committing to massive CapEx in a game they haven't played before. On the S&P: bearish, agreeing with Howard Marks's analysis that a P/E of ~23 has historically implied near-zero forward 10-year returns. On GLP-1 drugs: $79 billion in annual revenue versus AI's $40 billion, genuinely transformative, but the competitive dynamics change too fast — Wegovy was king, then Mounjaro, now tablets. Too hard. On SaaS: the market has it wrong. Coding is at most one-fifth of what software is, and incumbents like Adobe will reduce costs using AI while keeping cash flows intact. The advantage goes to the incumbents, not the disruptors. Constellation Software is the Pabrai bet in this space. On Bitcoin: too hard pile, outside circle of competence, and given that gold already exists, why do we need it?
Constellation Software buys ~200 small vertical software companies per year, pays 5-6x cash flow, and compounds them at 20-25% annually. No banker, no synergies pitch — just delegated M&A touching 70,000 companies twice a year. Nobody can clone it, which is exactly why it works.
Despite predictions that AI would eliminate radiologists, the Mayo Clinic's radiology staff grew 55% after AI arrived at reading scans.
In 2025, radiology was the second-highest paid medical specialty in America, with average incomes 48% higher than a decade ago.
A study across 3 hospitals found radiologists spent only 36% of their time reading scans — the part AI can do — with the rest being human judgment.
Robert Greene notes that one in six Americans is on some form of drug to deal with depression, suggesting a deep societal disconnection from meaningful experience.
Spencer Greenberg and Jeremy Stevenson analyzed almost 500 self-improvement techniques and found they all reduce to just 12 underlying psychological drivers.
Cold exposure has good short-term alertness benefits but the evidence base for long-term health benefits is much weaker than popularly believed.
In a randomized study of 20 habit-formation techniques run on hundreds of people, almost none of the techniques produced statistically meaningful results.
People given a tiny-habit fallback option (e.g. 10 squats instead of gym) were actually MORE successful at completing the full habit, not less.
The most effective habit-formation technique was 'habit reflection' — recalling a past successful habit, writing down what helped, then applying those lessons to a new habit.
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