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What A.I. Is Actually Doing to the Economy

Explore episode Jul 27, 2026

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Contradictory Private-Sector Data: No Clear Answer

At 7:49 · chapter starts 6:35

With government data inadequate, economists have turned to private-sector sources — ADP payroll data, LinkedIn job postings, Indeed hiring trends — to try to track AI's labor market impact in real time. The problem, Castleman explains, is that they're all telling different stories. Two serious economists, using careful methods and good data, can look at the same labor market and reach polar-opposite conclusions: one finding that entry-level workers in AI-exposed occupations are already losing jobs (the canary-in-the-coal-mine signal), the other finding that companies adopting AI most aggressively are hiring more people, not fewer. Castleman acknowledges this isn't entirely surprising given how fast the field is moving, but it means that anyone claiming certainty about what AI is doing to jobs right now is overreaching.

Business
AI as a Convenient Corporate Scapegoat

What A.I. Is Actually Doing to the Economy · Jul 27, 2026 Business

Investors are rewarding companies that make big AI claims, so CEOs who overhired and need to cut have a powerful incentive to frame layoffs as AI-driven productivity gains rather than management errors. Economists are deeply skeptical of headline AI layoff announcements.

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