Economists are skeptical of CEOs citing AI for layoffs because companies are rewarded by investors for AI-related announcements, giving executives a financial incentive to use AI as cover for decisions made for other reasons.
Where this was said
At 8:28 · chapter starts 6:35
With government data inadequate, economists have turned to private-sector sources — ADP payroll data, LinkedIn job postings, Indeed hiring trends — to try to track AI's labor market impact in real time. The problem, Castleman explains, is that they're all telling different stories. Two serious economists, using careful methods and good data, can look at the same labor market and reach polar-opposite conclusions: one finding that entry-level workers in AI-exposed occupations are already losing jobs (the canary-in-the-coal-mine signal), the other finding that companies adopting AI most aggressively are hiring more people, not fewer. Castleman acknowledges this isn't entirely surprising given how fast the field is moving, but it means that anyone claiming certainty about what AI is doing to jobs right now is overreaching. [1] — Ben Castleman "Credible economists using private-sector data from ADP, LinkedIn, and Indeed are reaching polar-opposite conclusions about AI's job impact.…" 06:10
Amazon announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs worldwide, with the company citing AI as a driver of the decision.
Block, the payments company, announced plans to lay off almost half its workforce, with CEO Jack Dorsey attributing the move to AI changing what it means to build and run a company.
Investors are rewarding companies that make big AI claims, so CEOs who overhired and need to cut have a powerful incentive to frame layoffs as AI-driven productivity gains rather than management errors. Economists are deeply skeptical of headline AI layoff announcements.
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