Alcohol stocks in freefall: AB InBev -15%, Brown-Forman -20%
Over the past year, Boston Beer fell 9%, AB InBev fell 15%, and Brown-Forman fell 20% as the alcohol industry faces the GLP-1 threat.
Snapshot · The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Prof G Markets: Google’s Quantum Breakthrough & The World Cup Goes to Saudi Arabia
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Dec 16, 2024
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GLP-1 Drugs vs. the Alcohol Industry
At 18:12 · chapter starts 16:36
The GLP-1 segment is where the episode finds its sharpest edge. Ed introduces the Eli Lilly news with a new vocabulary term from the CEO: 'anti-hedonics' — drugs that reduce the brain's desire cycle. Scott's framing is more visceral: these drugs are 'scaffolding on our instincts,' updating human biology for a world of industrial-scale food and alcohol production. The numbers are alarming for the drinks sector: Loyola University peer-reviewed research shows a 40% lower opioid overdose rate and 50% lower alcohol intoxication rate for GLP-1 users. Ed catalogs the carnage already underway — Boston Beer down 9%, AB InBev down 15%, Brown-Forman down 20% in a year. Scott delivers the most important insight: the alcohol industry is not built on social drinkers — it's built on the 1% of people who drink 27 beers a day. Those are exactly the people who will get GLP-1 prescriptions first, from doctors telling them they'll die if they keep drinking. When you remove those alcoholic customers, the industry's revenue drops 20-30%, which 'spells restructuring, massive layoffs, a meltdown.' Ed adds the J.M. Smucker CEO's tone-deaf earnings call response — 'snacking continues' — as darkly comic proof of how deep the denial runs. Scott closes the loop: young people have already abandoned alcohol in favor of edibles and other substances, making the drinks industry a slow-motion version of the cable TV collapse. [1] — Scott Galloway "The top 1% of drinkers account for 30-40% of all alcohol consumed — and those heavy drinkers are first in line for GLP-1 prescriptions. If …" 18:46 [2] — Scott Galloway "Top 1% of drinkers = 30-40% of all alcohol consumed: Scott Galloway noted that roughly 1% of alcohol drinkers are responsible for 30-40% of…" 18:46
Ozempic users reduced drinking by 60%
Scott Galloway cited data showing people on Ozempic reduced their drinking by 60%, signaling a major threat to the alcohol industry.
GLP-1 users: 40% lower opioid overdose rate
A Loyola University study found people with opioid or alcohol use disorder who take GLP-1 drugs have a 40% lower rate of opioid overdose and 50% lower rate of alcohol intoxication.
Top 1% of drinkers = 30-40% of all alcohol consumed
Scott Galloway noted that roughly 1% of alcohol drinkers are responsible for 30-40% of all alcohol consumption, making alcoholics the core of the drinks industry's business model.
GLP-1 Drugs Could Wipe Out the Alcohol Industry
The top 1% of drinkers account for 30-40% of all alcohol consumed — and those heavy drinkers are first in line for GLP-1 prescriptions. If those people quit drinking, the drinks industrial complex faces a 20-30% revenue collapse, mass layoffs, and a restructuring as brutal as cable TV.
The Young Aren't Drinking — They're Doing Something Else
At conferences, music festivals, and luxury events, young people are conspicuously absent from bars. They're using edibles, microdosing, and experimenting with substances that don't show up on a bar tab — and the bartender on Scott's cruise ship confirmed it: 'Finally, someone drinking.'
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