75% of VC funds lose money
Bill Maris reminded the audience that the 75th percentile of venture funds loses money, making top-quartile persistence critical.
Snapshot · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage
Explore episode
Jun 9, 2026
Where this was said
AI's 'Atari Stage': what comes next?
At 23:50 · chapter starts 19:09
The sharpest moment in the conversation arrives when Maris raises what he considers Google's obvious strategic play: slash token prices by 80% and watch OpenAI and Anthropic's business models go 'super critical.' If an enterprise can get a basically identical product from Gemini at a fifth of the price, why wouldn't they switch? The panel explores whether OpenAI is burning investor cash Uber-style to grab market share, and whether the public markets will eventually be left holding the bag. Maris is blunt: with approximately $1 trillion in spend commitments and only $60 billion in revenue, OpenAI's IPO math relies on retail and passive funds absorbing valuations that the S&P 500 rules are already being bent to accommodate. [1] — Bill Maris "Google could arbitrarily cut token prices by 80%, making its model functionally identical to OpenAI's at a fraction of the cost — and Maris…" 24:50
Gaming evolution: '80s to today in 5 AI years
The transformation gaming underwent from text-based Zork to photorealistic modern games will happen to AI within the next 5 years, per Maris.
AI at 'Atari stage' — PlayStation 10 in 5 years
Bill Maris compared today's AI to the Atari command-line era and predicted it would reach PlayStation-equivalent sophistication within 5 years.
Life Sciences: Computational Biology Is the Bet
Maris founded Calico, invested in Flatiron and New Limit, and remains deeply interested in longevity — but says therapeutic clinical trials are a specialist area he's stepping back from. The real prize is computational biology: simulate a human cell in silico and drug discovery accelerates exponentially.
Section32: 6 funds, all top decile
Bill Maris's Section32 has raised 6 funds averaging ~$400M in size, with all 6 performing in the top decile.
Small Funds Crush Large Funds — The Data Proves It
The math is unambiguous: VC funds under $750M average 4.76x DPI versus 2.42x for funds over $1B, and represent 95% of all top-decile performers. Maris's six Section32 funds have averaged ~$400M in size and all landed in the top decile.
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