Snapshot · Up First from NPR
New Illinois transitional legislature member Virgil Strader said there would be a better than 50% chance of armed conflict if the state legislature refuses to approve the split.
Where this was said
At 25:44 · chapter starts 23:35
The episode's most alarming section opens with Owen's measured academic warning: the structural conditions for political violence in the US exist right now, and rebellions historically start not by plan but by spark. Then Virgil Strader removes all academic distance. Strader serves on New Illinois's transitional legislature, helping draft a constitution and write laws in preparation for a state that doesn't yet exist. In his day job, he's an auctioneer — and at a St. Patrick's Day benefit auction in Highland, Illinois, he told O'Neill exactly what he thinks happens if the legislature says no. 'Grab your gun.' He estimates a better than 50% chance of armed conflict. [1] — Virgil Strader ">50% chance of armed conflict — Strader: New Illinois transitional legislature member Virgil Strader said there would be a better than 50% …" 25:44 He fantasizes about surrounding the state capitol in Springfield with an armed group, forcing the split without firing a shot. He knows people with heavy arsenals who would join. A bill to split the state was introduced in the most recent session by legislator Brad Halbrook but died in committee. Halbrook plans to reintroduce it — and when pressed on violence, he invokes the Founding Fathers: they weren't worried about the law, they were worried about political will.
The conditions for political violence in the United States exist right now. Historian Dr. Kenneth Owen won't say it's likely, but he won't say it isn't either. Rebellions don't happen by plan — they happen when a spark lands in the wrong place.
If the Illinois legislature refuses to allow separation, Virgil Strader gives it better than 50/50 odds of sparking armed conflict. He fantasizes about surrounding the state capitol in Springfield. He's not joking. And he knows people with heavy arsenals willing to join.
A bill to split Illinois was introduced in the most recent legislative session by Rep. Brad Halbrook but failed to make it out of committee.
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