PBD Podcast

Snapshot · PBD Podcast

Newsom’s Billionaire Tax, Iran War Escalates & Israel Acknowledges Genocide | PBD Podcast #825

Explore episode Jun 29, 2026

Where this was said

Kalshi Odds on Billionaire Tax Passing

At 29:21 · chapter starts 27:40

Patrick briefly pivots to Kalshi's real-money prediction market, where the odds of California's billionaire wealth tax passing have crept back up toward 40% with over half a million dollars traded. Tom's read is stark: affordability anxiety baking through a California summer will drive a populist wave that carries the tax across the finish line. Patrick's logic is simpler — the tax directly targets only 216 to 246 billionaires in the state, so the ordinary voter calculating their own interest has no personal stake in opposing it. The segment underscores how politically easy it is to tax a small number of very visible, very wealthy people, regardless of the downstream economic consequences.

Similar snapshots