Snapshot · The Bulwark Podcast
An Anthropic economist's paper argued that with log utility it is optimal to accept a 1-in-3 chance of ending human existence for a 2-in-3 chance of raising living standards by a factor of 55.
Where this was said
At 1:11:30 · chapter starts 1:11:10
Tim Miller wraps the episode with what he frames as something to 'ease your mind for the weekend': a quote from a paper by an Anthropic economist stating that with log utility it is optimal to accept a one-in-three chance of ending human existence in exchange for a two-in-3 chance of dramatically raising living standards by a factor of 55. [1] — Tim Miller "An Anthropic economist's paper concluded it is mathematically optimal — using log utility — to accept a 1-in-3 chance of ending all human e…" 1:11:30 The quote lands as a mordant punchline to an episode full of government overreach, deportations, and 30-year sentences for zines — here is the cutting edge of the technology sector's ethics. Tim Miller signs off by thanking Jane Coaston, noting he can now see why she holds the download record, and teasing the podcast's upcoming 250th anniversary. Producer credits for Katie Cooper, Ansley Skipper, Katie Lutz, and Jason Brown follow.
An Anthropic economist's paper concluded it is mathematically optimal — using log utility — to accept a 1-in-3 chance of ending all human existence for a 2-in-3 chance of raising living standards by a factor of 55. This is not a philosophy thought experiment; it's a paper from the company building leading AI systems.
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