Snapshot · Modern Wisdom
Cardiovascular medication trials were almost all positive before 2000, then almost all negative after 2000 — not because medicine changed, but because a funding agency required pre-registered predictions, eliminating post-hoc data fishing.
Where this was said
At 31:10 · chapter starts 29:33
Epstein pivots to a chapter of his book on the replication crisis in science, framing it explicitly as a failure of constraints on how researchers are allowed to reason from data [1] — David Epstein "Most published research is wrong because scientists gather data first and then mine it for patterns — like drawing a bullseye around a bull…" 29:40 . The correct scientific workflow is: form a theory, make a specific prediction, gather data, check whether the prediction was right, and update beliefs. What has actually been happening — what Epstein calls HARKing (Hypothesizing After the Results are Known) — is more like a sharpshooter firing randomly at a wall and then drawing bullseyes around wherever the shots landed. The clinical consequence of this approach is stark: for decades leading into 2000, cardiovascular medication trials were almost uniformly positive. Then, starting in 2000, they were almost uniformly negative. Medicine had not stopped working; a funding agency had simply started requiring pre-registered predictions before trials began, and suddenly the retrospective data mining was no longer possible [2] — David Epstein "Replication crisis: most published research is false: David Epstein argues that most published research is not true because scientists gath…" 29:40 . The human face of the crisis is Brian Wansink, once the world's most famous nutrition researcher, who in a now-infamous blog post titled 'The Grad Student Who Never Says No' described instructing a student to mine datasets until she found something publishable. About 18 of his papers were retracted. Epstein links this to practical advice for individuals: in your own life, before making any significant change or testing any new approach, write down your prediction of what will happen — then test it and update slowly.
David Epstein argues that most published research is not true because scientists gather data first and then look for patterns retrospectively — like drawing a bullseye around a bullet hole — rather than committing to predictions before testing.
Most published research is wrong because scientists gather data first and then mine it for patterns — like drawing a bullseye around a bullet hole. Cardiovascular drug trials were almost all positive before 2000, then almost all negative after, not because medicine changed but because funding agencies finally required pre-registered predictions.
Brian Wansink, once the world's most famous nutrition researcher, had approximately 18 of his papers retracted after he publicly described encouraging a grad student to mine datasets for any significant result rather than testing pre-registered hypotheses.
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