Token costs doubling every 45 days
Chamath's CTO told him their token costs are doubling every 45 days while downstream productivity gains are only around 5% at most.
Snapshot · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Explore episode
Jul 11, 2026
Where this was said
OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs
At 5:16 · chapter starts 2:58
Jason brings in real-world evidence: Uber's CTO publicly posted that 99% of Uber engineers use AI tools, over 70% of pull requests are attributed to AI agents, and the company has built 2,500 agentic skills. Uber's answer to the ROI question is forward-deployed engineers embedded in operational departments to identify and build agentic pods. DoorDash's CTO Andy Fang goes further, releasing internal benchmarks showing they've introduced open-weight models into their AI code review workflow without degrading quality — using frontier Fable for hard tasks and Kimi 2.6 for lower-level work. Jason frames this as the 'tip of the spear' behavior that will spread across enterprise. Brad contextualizes it: yes, there's optimization happening, but revenue growth is not slowing down because every new use case being discovered still wants the most powerful frontier model available. His analogy: Snowflake optimized heavily under the hood throughout its growth phase, but revenue never slowed. He caps it with a jaw-dropping claim — if these labs end the year at $100 billion, they could 3–5x again the following year, adding $200 billion of incremental revenue, an amount that has no historical precedent.
Token Costs Doubling Every 45 Days, ROI Still Missing
Chamath's CTO told him their token costs are doubling every 45 days while productivity gains top out at 5%. This isn't unique to one company — every enterprise will hit this wall within 3–4 years, and those that can IPO before the reckoning arrives should.
SpaceX IPO: $75B raised at $1.75T valuation
SpaceX raised $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation in its IPO, setting a new template for trillion-dollar public offerings with early index inclusion and staged lockup releases.
Anthropic and OpenAI IPO Outlook: Brad Gerstner's Inside View
Brad Gerstner says it's highly likely both Anthropic and OpenAI go public within 6–9 months. SpaceX's IPO at $1.75T proved the playbook works — early index inclusion, staged lockup, $75B raised — and now Anthropic's rumored $100B+ revenue run rate could make it an even bigger listing.
Anthropic ~$100B+ revenue trajectory
Anthropic is rumored to be trending toward over $100 billion in annualized revenue by end of 2026, compared to SpaceX's ~$35 billion when it IPO'd.
OpenAI ~$70B ARR
The most recent rumors on Twitter place OpenAI's annualized revenue at around $70 billion, roughly twice SpaceX's forward revenue at IPO.
Similar snapshots
AI coding viability debate as hook
The founder attached their SaaS demo to the trending debate about whether AI coding is actually good enough to build a full SaaS product.
Algorithm understanding drove Twitter growth
Quickly forming opinions on how the Twitter algorithm and platform worked allowed the speaker to grow rapidly on the platform.
MVP built in one week
Sam's initial MVP was coded in approximately one week using ChatGPT voice mode and copy-pasting code, with no prior technical experience.
Discord vs email for young users
Sam argues Discord is 10x better than email for building relationships with younger users who rarely check their inbox.
Monthly infra costs ~$780–$980
Sam's monthly operating costs include Cursor ($200), AI image generation ($100), AI video generation ($200), hosting ($100), email marketing ($80), and AI compute ($300–$500).
ChatGPT-powered pain point research
Sam recommends copying days of Discord chat history into ChatGPT and prompting it to list recurring pain points as a fast, free market research technique.
50 free tools built total
Bhanu and his team built approximately 50 free tools to attract search traffic, each linked back to SiteGPT.
New tool built in under 5 minutes
With AI coding tools like Cursor, Bhanu can now create a new free marketing tool in less than 5 minutes by referencing existing tools.
KD filter < 10 for rankable keywords
Bhanu filters Ahrefs keyword results to show only those with a keyword difficulty below 10, making them realistic ranking targets for any decent website.
