More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts

Anthropic may end 2026 with over $100 billion in revenue and could then 3–5x again the following year — a scale of growth that has no historical precedent in Silicon Valley or anywhere else.

Jul 11, 2026 1:42:05 Difficulty: Intermediate Played

TL;DR

Brad Gerstner joins Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Sacks to break down the trillion-dollar IPO race between Anthropic and OpenAI, with Brad expressing high confidence both will go public within 6–9 months. The group debates AI token economics — who captures enterprise spend, whether open-source models will erode frontier lab revenue, and China's move to restrict overseas access to its top AI models. The episode closes with Brad unveiling the Trump Accounts launch: over 1.5 million accounts and $1 billion in deposits in the first 24 hours, backed by $6+ billion in philanthropy from Michael Dell and Gwynne Shotwell. The single most actionable takeaway: every employer should contribute $2,500 tax-free to employees' kids' Trump Accounts — it's a no-brainer tax saving for both sides.

#Anthropic IPO #OpenAI IPO #SpaceX IPO blueprint #AI token economics #enterprise ROI on AI #open source AI strategy #AI duopoly #sovereign AI strategy #China AI export controls #Trump Accounts launch #Invest America Act #compounding from birth #Roth IRA conversion #AI energy constraints #Jevons paradox in AI #SpaceX IPO #Trump Accounts #Invest America #token costs #open source AI #sovereign AI #Meta MuseSpark #Jevons paradox #Roth IRA #S&P 500 #enterprise AI ROI #frontier models #model routing #Brad Gerstner #compounding

Brad Gerstner joins the All-In besties to cover the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO race, enterprise AI token economics, Meta's price war, China's potential AI export controls, and the blockbuster launch of Trump Accounts.

Chapter list
  • The episode opens with Brad Gerstner subbing in for David Friedberg on his vacation, Jason Calacanis broadcasting from Paris after conducting eight interviews at the RAISE conference, and Chamath Palihapitiya calling in from what he calls a 'hot software summer' of enterprise sales. Chamath recounts a dinner in Geneva hosted by Marc Benioff, attended by Jensen Huang, Brad Smith, and Anthony Tan of Grab, connected to a UN Commission on AI for which Benioff is co-chairman. He gives Benioff an effusive compliment — 'this guy is a fucking master' — as a window into what it means to build an enterprise sales machine at global scale. Brad, fresh from a week in Washington DC, drops hints about what's coming in the Trump Accounts segment. The brief intro sets up the episode's dual registers: hardheaded investor analysis and genuine enthusiasm for a specific policy mission.

  • Jason brings in real-world evidence: Uber's CTO publicly posted that 99% of Uber engineers use AI tools, over 70% of pull requests are attributed to AI agents, and the company has built 2,500 agentic skills. Uber's answer to the ROI question is forward-deployed engineers embedded in operational departments to identify and build agentic pods. DoorDash's CTO Andy Fang goes further, releasing internal benchmarks showing they've introduced open-weight models into their AI code review workflow without degrading quality — using frontier Fable for hard tasks and Kimi 2.6 for lower-level work. Jason frames this as the 'tip of the spear' behavior that will spread across enterprise. Brad contextualizes it: yes, there's optimization happening, but revenue growth is not slowing down because every new use case being discovered still wants the most powerful frontier model available. His analogy: Snowflake optimized heavily under the hood throughout its growth phase, but revenue never slowed. He caps it with a jaw-dropping claim — if these labs end the year at $100 billion, they could 3–5x again the following year, adding $200 billion of incremental revenue, an amount that has no historical precedent.

  • David Sacks synthesizes the discussion with a framework: enterprises want model fungibility — the ability to hot-swap models for the cheapest one that gets the task done. But there's a hard technical blocker: memory, context, and history are all tied to the model, and nobody has figured out how to make them fully portable. So even technically capable teams like Coinbase and DoorDash can build routing middleware, most enterprises simply cannot. The data bears this out: open source went from 19% to 11% of enterprise AI wallet share year-over-year. He introduces the Decagon framework — open models are great for mature, well-defined use cases where you can post-train on specific data. But for immature use cases, which is everything enterprises are still figuring out, you want the most capable general intelligence available. Jason brings in Ali Ghodsi's Databricks finding: the same GLM 5.2 model, but with a different harness, produced 2x token savings. This is profound — it means much of the optimization opportunity has nothing to do with model choice and everything to do with how you structure the call. Jason shares his own optimization experience: asking his agents to self-optimize their token usage reduced consumption by 80%. The session ends with the group agreeing that the tip of the spear — the 1% of technically capable deployers — are working it all out, and the rest will follow.

  • Jason pivots to the week's geopolitical AI story: Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reported that Chinese regulators held meetings with Alibaba, ByteDance, and ZhipuAI to discuss limiting overseas access to China's top AI models — both open and closed. The CCP is simultaneously making AI research leaks a national security offense and tightening control over who can fund Chinese AI labs. Manus, a Chinese agentic AI startup, had employees pulled back from Singapore by the CCP. Sacks walks through why this makes sense: Chinese labs like Alibaba's Qwen and ZhipuAI's GLM went open specifically because they were behind the frontier and needed developer adoption and reinforcement learning from usage. Now that they're catching up, the economic logic shifts toward closing. He draws the explicit parallel to Sam Altman, who took OpenAI from open to closed in exactly the same move. Brad adds a provocative claim: GLM 5.2 contains watermarks from Anthropic's models, suggesting distillation — effectively downloading frontier intelligence built with American capital. He expects the US government to take steps against distillation. Brad also reports from his DC meetings that from the president down, the single unifying principle in Washington is doing everything necessary to stay ahead of China in AI.

  • Sacks pivots from the philanthropy narrative to what he thinks is an underappreciated story: Trump Accounts are among the most powerful tax-advantaged vehicles ever created in America. He walks through the full stack: donate up to $5,000 per year per child, with family, friends, and employers all eligible to contribute. The account compounds tax-free until 18. Employers can contribute $2,500 tax-free to an employee's child's account — a no-brainer for both parties. At 18, the child can roll it into an IRA or, better yet, a Roth IRA. The optimal move, per the CPAs Sacks has been reading: wait until the child is no longer a dependent and is in the 0% tax bracket — probably in college or just after graduation — and do the Roth IRA conversion at minimal cost. A $200–300K account at age 18 compounds to over $10 million by age 60 at historical market rates. The account also allows penalty-free withdrawals for home down payments, health emergencies, college, and business startup. Maxed out with contributions from friends, family, and employer, Sacks says Sacks, if a Trump account had been maxed out using historical market returns, the child would be a millionaire by age 28. He summarizes: this is like getting an IRA at birth, which is something that has never before been possible in America.

TAM
Total Addressable Market — the total revenue opportunity for a product or service if it achieved 100% market share. Used here to argue intelligence is the largest TAM in history.
Jevons paradox
The economic observation that as the efficiency or affordability of a resource increases, total consumption of that resource rises rather than falls. Applied here to AI token pricing.
ARR
Annual Recurring Revenue — an annualized measure of subscription or recurring revenue, used to compare Anthropic and OpenAI's scale.
Confidential filing (S-1)
A process allowing companies to submit their IPO registration statement to the SEC privately before going public, letting them negotiate terms without full public disclosure.
Index inclusion
The addition of a newly public stock into a major market index (e.g., S&P 500), which forces passive index funds to buy shares and can significantly boost demand and liquidity.
Lockup period
A post-IPO window during which insiders and early investors are contractually prevented from selling shares, typically 90–180 days. SpaceX pioneered a staged lockup with milestone-based releases.
Model fungibility
The ability to swap one AI model for another interchangeably in an application without losing memory, context, or history — the holy grail for enterprises wanting to route to the cheapest model.
Post-training
Fine-tuning a pre-trained AI model on a specific dataset or set of tasks after initial training, used to specialize a general model for a particular enterprise use case.
Harness
In AI deployment, the orchestration layer (prompt engineering, memory, skills, context management) that wraps a model and determines how efficiently tokens are used.
Inference
The process of running a trained AI model to generate outputs (e.g., answers, code) in real-time, as opposed to training. Inference costs are what companies pay per token.
Distillation
A technique where a smaller model is trained to replicate the outputs of a larger, more capable model, effectively transferring knowledge. Alleged to have been used by Chinese labs on American frontier models.
Vibe coding
Colloquial term for using AI tools (like Lovable or Claude Code) to generate software with minimal manual coding, driven by natural language prompts.
Reconciliation bill
A Congressional legislative process that allows budget-related bills to pass the Senate with a simple majority (51 votes) rather than the usual 60 needed to overcome a filibuster.
Superannuation
Australia's mandatory employer-funded retirement savings system requiring employers to contribute a percentage of wages into a privately managed account owned by the employee. Used as a comparator to Trump Accounts.
P-doom
Shorthand for 'probability of doom' — a metric used in AI safety circles to express the estimated likelihood that advanced AI leads to catastrophic outcomes for humanity.
Agentic
Referring to AI systems that can autonomously plan and execute multi-step tasks, make decisions, and take actions over extended periods without human intervention at each step.
Nerf
Slang for deliberately limiting or restricting a model's capabilities, often for safety or compliance reasons. Used here to describe Claude being restricted on health-related queries.
Accredited investor
A legal designation under US securities law for individuals or entities meeting certain income or net worth thresholds, which grants access to investment opportunities restricted from the general public.
GAAP revenue
Revenue recognized under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard US accounting rules for when and how revenue is recorded, often used to distinguish from ARR or bookings.
Cron job
A scheduled task in computing that runs automatically at specified time intervals (e.g., hourly), used here to describe automated AI agents running recurring trend-spotting tasks.

Chapter 2 · 02:58

OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs

Jason brings in real-world evidence: Uber's CTO publicly posted that 99% of Uber engineers use AI tools, over 70% of pull requests are attributed to AI agents, and the company has built 2,500 agentic skills. Uber's answer to the ROI question is forward-deployed engineers embedded in operational departments to identify and build agentic pods. DoorDash's CTO Andy Fang goes further, releasing internal benchmarks showing they've introduced open-weight models into their AI code review workflow without degrading quality — using frontier Fable for hard tasks and Kimi 2.6 for lower-level work. Jason frames this as the 'tip of the spear' behavior that will spread across enterprise. Brad contextualizes it: yes, there's optimization happening, but revenue growth is not slowing down because every new use case being discovered still wants the most powerful frontier model available. His analogy: Snowflake optimized heavily under the hood throughout its growth phase, but revenue never slowed. He caps it with a jaw-dropping claim — if these labs end the year at $100 billion, they could 3–5x again the following year, adding $200 billion of incremental revenue, an amount that has no historical precedent.

Claims made here

Chamath Palihapitiya's company's token costs are doubling every 45 days while downstream productivity gains are only about 5%.

Chamath Palihapitiya no source cited

SpaceX raised $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation in its IPO and is now trading at roughly $2 trillion market cap.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

Anthropic is rumored to be trending toward over $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is rumored to be around $70 billion.

Brad Gerstner Twitter rumors / X.com

The AI-attributable EPS growth of S&P 493 companies (excluding AI chip makers) is between 0% and 2%, with most gains from pricing power and buybacks.

Chamath Palihapitiya Claude/Fable 5 AI model analysis of publicly available data

At Uber, 99% of engineers use AI tools and more than 70% of pull requests are attributed to local or cloud agents.

Jason Calacanis Praveen (CTO of Uber) tweet on X

Uber engineers have built 2,500 agentic skills as part of their AI deployment.

Jason Calacanis Praveen (CTO of Uber) tweet on X

Token prices have fallen by roughly 90% per year for each of the last 2.5 years.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

Technology
Data point 45 days

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

Chamath's CTO told him their token costs are doubling every 45 days while productivity gains top out at 5%. This isn't unique to one company — every enterprise will hit this wall within 3–4 years, and those that can IPO before the reckoning arrives should.

Chapter 3 · 27:39

The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly

David Sacks synthesizes the discussion with a framework: enterprises want model fungibility — the ability to hot-swap models for the cheapest one that gets the task done. But there's a hard technical blocker: memory, context, and history are all tied to the model, and nobody has figured out how to make them fully portable. So even technically capable teams like Coinbase and DoorDash can build routing middleware, most enterprises simply cannot. The data bears this out: open source went from 19% to 11% of enterprise AI wallet share year-over-year. He introduces the Decagon framework — open models are great for mature, well-defined use cases where you can post-train on specific data. But for immature use cases, which is everything enterprises are still figuring out, you want the most capable general intelligence available. Jason brings in Ali Ghodsi's Databricks finding: the same GLM 5.2 model, but with a different harness, produced 2x token savings. This is profound — it means much of the optimization opportunity has nothing to do with model choice and everything to do with how you structure the call. Jason shares his own optimization experience: asking his agents to self-optimize their token usage reduced consumption by 80%. The session ends with the group agreeing that the tip of the spear — the 1% of technically capable deployers — are working it all out, and the rest will follow.

Claims made here

Japan is investing $6 billion in an AI consortium called Neoterra, focused on physical AI and robotics.

Jason Calacanis no source cited

Open-source models' share of enterprise AI spending dropped from 19% to 11% year-over-year.

David Sacks no source cited

Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi found that switching the application harness — not the model — reduced token costs by approximately 2x using the same GLM 5.2 model.

Jason Calacanis Ali Ghodsi (CEO of Databricks) post on X

Lovable grew from $0 to $350 million in revenue in its first two years and has since grown to $600 million.

Jason Calacanis no source cited

Decagon routes 90% of its AI usage to open-source models after post-training them for its customer support use case.

David Sacks Decagon founder blog post

Technology
Sovereign AI: Every Country Is Building Its Own Stack

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

After sitting on the UN AI Commission with Benioff and Jensen Huang, Chamath reports there is not a single country that doesn't have a sovereign AI strategy — and almost none of them want to depend on a closed-source American model. They'd rather take an open model like NVIDIA's and build their own soup-to-nuts stack, even if it's 5% worse.

Technology
Data point 11%

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

Open source went from 19% of enterprise AI wallet share to just 11% in one year. The reason: most enterprises can't build the middleware routing needed to use cheap models for the right tasks. The spirit is willing but the technical flesh is weak.

Technology
Immature vs. Mature Use Cases: When to Use Frontier vs. Open Models

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

For mature, well-defined use cases, post-trained open models beat frontier models on cost. For everything you're still figuring out — which is most enterprise AI today — you need the most capable general intelligence you can get. Decagon routes 90% of its traffic to open models, but only after extensive customization.

Technology
Data point 2x

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

Ali Ghodsi at Databricks found that switching the application harness — not the model — cut token costs by 2x using the same GLM 5.2 model. The implication: most enterprises are wasting tokens because of bad harness design, not because they need more expensive models.

Chapter 4 · 54:29

CCP considering export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China?

Jason pivots to the week's geopolitical AI story: Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reported that Chinese regulators held meetings with Alibaba, ByteDance, and ZhipuAI to discuss limiting overseas access to China's top AI models — both open and closed. The CCP is simultaneously making AI research leaks a national security offense and tightening control over who can fund Chinese AI labs. Manus, a Chinese agentic AI startup, had employees pulled back from Singapore by the CCP. Sacks walks through why this makes sense: Chinese labs like Alibaba's Qwen and ZhipuAI's GLM went open specifically because they were behind the frontier and needed developer adoption and reinforcement learning from usage. Now that they're catching up, the economic logic shifts toward closing. He draws the explicit parallel to Sam Altman, who took OpenAI from open to closed in exactly the same move. Brad adds a provocative claim: GLM 5.2 contains watermarks from Anthropic's models, suggesting distillation — effectively downloading frontier intelligence built with American capital. He expects the US government to take steps against distillation. Brad also reports from his DC meetings that from the president down, the single unifying principle in Washington is doing everything necessary to stay ahead of China in AI.

Claims made here

GLM 5.2 contains watermarks from Anthropic's models, indicating the Chinese lab was distilling from American frontier models.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

The US faces an energy shortfall equivalent to three entire Californias' worth of power by 2050 based on expected load growth from standard device consumption.

Chamath Palihapitiya no source cited

Technology
Data point 3 CAs

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

Chamath's team calculated that based on expected load growth through 2050 — just from regular devices, cars, and buildings, not even aggressive AI inference — the US is short three entire Californias' worth of energy. The AI revolution's biggest bottleneck may not be chips or software. It's electrons.

Chapter 5 · 1:03:09

Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism

Sacks pivots from the philanthropy narrative to what he thinks is an underappreciated story: Trump Accounts are among the most powerful tax-advantaged vehicles ever created in America. He walks through the full stack: donate up to $5,000 per year per child, with family, friends, and employers all eligible to contribute. The account compounds tax-free until 18. Employers can contribute $2,500 tax-free to an employee's child's account — a no-brainer for both parties. At 18, the child can roll it into an IRA or, better yet, a Roth IRA. The optimal move, per the CPAs Sacks has been reading: wait until the child is no longer a dependent and is in the 0% tax bracket — probably in college or just after graduation — and do the Roth IRA conversion at minimal cost. A $200–300K account at age 18 compounds to over $10 million by age 60 at historical market rates. The account also allows penalty-free withdrawals for home down payments, health emergencies, college, and business startup. Maxed out with contributions from friends, family, and employer, Sacks says Sacks, if a Trump account had been maxed out using historical market returns, the child would be a millionaire by age 28. He summarizes: this is like getting an IRA at birth, which is something that has never before been possible in America.

Claims made here

Taiwan holds only 2–3 weeks of LNG reserves, meaning a Chinese blockade would almost immediately cut off the island's energy supply.

Jason Calacanis Wall Street Journal article

Trump Accounts received over 1.5 million account creations and over $1 billion in deposits in the first 24 hours after the July 4th launch.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

Michael and Susan Dell committed over $6 billion to Trump Accounts at $250 per child for 25 million children.

Jason Calacanis no source cited

Employers can contribute up to $2,500 tax-free per year to an employee's child's Trump Account.

David Sacks no source cited

A fully maxed-out Trump Account earning historical market returns would make the child a millionaire by age 28.

David Sacks no source cited

Business
Data point 1.5M

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Business

The Trump Accounts app went live on July 4th and hit 1.5 million accounts created and over $1 billion in deposits in the first 24 hours alone. Every account invests in the S&P 500, costs nothing, and is free for the child's lifetime. President Trump has now directed the team to auto-create accounts for all 50–70 million eligible children.

Business
The Tax Playbook: Why Every Family Must Max Out a Trump Account

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Business

Trump Accounts are better than an IRA: tax-free compounding from birth, employer contributions up to $2,500 tax-free, philanthropic contributions from friends and family, and a Roth IRA rollover at conversion — ideally when the kid is in the 0% bracket. Maxed out, the account could reach $200–300K by age 18 and compound to $10M+ by 60.

Society & Culture
Jason's Vision: Trump Accounts Replace the Giving Pledge

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Society & Culture

Jason Calacanis delivered a passionate case for Trump Accounts as the most American thing possible: every child gets a shot at the S&P 500 from birth, replacing both the Giving Pledge and Social Security's dependency model. Put TDS aside — this could reconnect a generation of young people who no longer believe in the American dream.

No indexed bits in this chapter.

Show stoppers

Technology
Data point 45 days

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Technology

Chamath's CTO told him their token costs are doubling every 45 days while productivity gains top out at 5%. This isn't unique to one company — every enterprise will hit this wall within 3–4 years, and those that can IPO before the reckoning arrives should.

Business
Data point 1.5M

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War,… · Jul 11, 2026 Business

The Trump Accounts app went live on July 4th and hit 1.5 million accounts created and over $1 billion in deposits in the first 24 hours alone. Every account invests in the S&P 500, costs nothing, and is free for the child's lifetime. President Trump has now directed the team to auto-create accounts for all 50–70 million eligible children.

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Claims & Sources

7 / 20 cited (35%)

Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.

Anthropic is rumored to be trending toward over $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is rumored to be around $70 billion.

Brad Gerstner Twitter rumors / X.com

SpaceX raised $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation in its IPO and is now trading at roughly $2 trillion market cap.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

Chamath Palihapitiya's company's token costs are doubling every 45 days while downstream productivity gains are only about 5%.

Chamath Palihapitiya no source cited

Token prices have fallen by roughly 90% per year for each of the last 2.5 years.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

Open-source models' share of enterprise AI spending dropped from 19% to 11% year-over-year.

David Sacks no source cited

At Uber, 99% of engineers use AI tools and more than 70% of pull requests are attributed to local or cloud agents.

Jason Calacanis Praveen (CTO of Uber) tweet on X

Uber engineers have built 2,500 agentic skills as part of their AI deployment.

Jason Calacanis Praveen (CTO of Uber) tweet on X

Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi found that switching the application harness — not the model — reduced token costs by approximately 2x using the same GLM 5.2 model.

Jason Calacanis Ali Ghodsi (CEO of Databricks) post on X

Decagon routes 90% of its AI usage to open-source models after post-training them for its customer support use case.

David Sacks Decagon founder blog post

Trump Accounts received over 1.5 million account creations and over $1 billion in deposits in the first 24 hours after the July 4th launch.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

The US faces an energy shortfall equivalent to three entire Californias' worth of power by 2050 based on expected load growth from standard device consumption.

Chamath Palihapitiya no source cited

Taiwan holds only 2–3 weeks of LNG reserves, meaning a Chinese blockade would almost immediately cut off the island's energy supply.

Jason Calacanis Wall Street Journal article

Michael and Susan Dell committed over $6 billion to Trump Accounts at $250 per child for 25 million children.

Jason Calacanis no source cited

The AI-attributable EPS growth of S&P 493 companies (excluding AI chip makers) is between 0% and 2%, with most gains from pricing power and buybacks.

Chamath Palihapitiya Claude/Fable 5 AI model analysis of publicly available data

Lovable grew from $0 to $350 million in revenue in its first two years and has since grown to $600 million.

Jason Calacanis no source cited

A fully maxed-out Trump Account earning historical market returns would make the child a millionaire by age 28.

David Sacks no source cited

Employers can contribute up to $2,500 tax-free per year to an employee's child's Trump Account.

David Sacks no source cited

GLM 5.2 contains watermarks from Anthropic's models, indicating the Chinese lab was distilling from American frontier models.

Brad Gerstner no source cited

Japan is investing $6 billion in an AI consortium called Neoterra, focused on physical AI and robotics.

Jason Calacanis no source cited