USDA predicts record soybean output
The USDA predicts that this summer's US soybean production will reach record levels as China resumes large purchases.
Snapshot · The Indicator from Planet Money
Why your neighbor might be paying less for their car
Explore episode
Jul 15, 2026
Where this was said
Listener Q2: What Did US Farmers Plant After the Soybean Trade War?
At 6:35 · chapter starts 5:35
Rudy Moza calls in from Omaha, watching soybeans sprout across the road and wondering what actually happened to US planting decisions after the trade war scare. Darian Woods sets the scene: April 2024, the US-China trade war escalates, China stops buying American soybeans almost entirely and hits US agricultural goods with retaliatory tariffs — a gut punch that lasts six months and removes 6 million acres of soybean production from the US landscape. [1] — Darian Woods "When the US-China trade war escalated in April 2024, China essentially stopped buying American soybeans and slapped retaliatory tariffs on …" 05:35 Farmers pivot to corn, planting 8 million extra acres instead. But the story flips fast: with a trade truce in place, China commits to buying at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans per year through 2028, and the USDA now predicts record soybean production this summer. [2] — Darian Woods "US soybean production is on track to hit record levels this summer. China resumed huge purchases after a trade truce, committing to at leas…" 06:35 A kicker: soybeans require far less nitrogen fertilizer than corn, and with fertilizer prices spiking due to the war in Iran, the economics of soybeans look even better. The segment closes with Waylon imagining farmers stuffing soybeans into a cannon and blasting them eastward.
The US-China Soybean Trade War: A Six-Month Gut Punch
When the US-China trade war escalated in April 2024, China essentially stopped buying American soybeans and slapped retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural goods — for six months. US soybean acreage dropped by 6 million acres, and farmers pivoted to corn, planting 8 million more acres of it instead.
US soybean acreage fell 6M acres
US soybean acreage fell by 6 million acres last year after China stopped buying American soybeans during the trade war.
China largest US soybean buyer
China is America's largest buyer of soybeans, making the US-China trade relationship critical to American agricultural output.
Corn acreage up 8M acres
US farmers planted 8 million more acres of corn to compensate for the drop in soybean acreage during the trade war.
Soybean Comeback: USDA Predicts Record Production
US soybean production is on track to hit record levels this summer. China resumed huge purchases after a trade truce, committing to at least 25 million tonnes per year through 2028 — even while its tariffs technically remain in place. And soybeans got an extra boost: they need far less nitrogen fertilizer than corn, whose input costs spiked with the war in Iran.
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