My First Million

Snapshot · My First Million

Howard Marks: how I make money while you worry about a market crash

Explore episode Jul 15, 2026

Where this was said

Second Level Thinking

At 8:28 · chapter starts 8:26

Shaan Puri presses Marks on something he read in one of Marks' books: 'I can make someone better, but I don't think I can make them great.' Marks explains that the first chapter of 'The Most Important Thing' is about second-level thinking — the need to have a variant perception, a view that diverges from the consensus of investors, and then to be right about it. He is unambiguous: he can teach someone why second-level thinking matters, but he cannot teach them how to have correct contrarian views. 'In basketball, there's a saying, you can't coach height. And I think there's something called insight.' He then raises the looming AI question: when AI achieves artificial general intelligence — the ability to do everything a human can do — will it be able to replicate this kind of insight? He genuinely doesn't know.

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