The episode opens with sponsor reads for SimpliSafe, pitching its home security system to summer travelers with a 50% off promotion for listeners at simplisafe.com/crooked. A Shopify testimonial from a small business owner follows, with OnDeck rounding out the pre-roll block. These are straightforward paid integrations before the hosts take the mic.

Jon Favreau opens with a crisp tease of the episode's four main stories, framing Trump's housing move with characteristic sarcasm: the president touts a major affordability accomplishment 'as only he knows how — by canceling it.' Dan Pfeiffer briefly notes the Polar Coaster episode that covered the New York primaries and Dobbs. The hosts pitch the Crooked Media subscription tier — ad-free episodes, subscriber-only shows, and newsletters — before diving into the news.

Jon Favreau lays out the facts: a bipartisan housing bill that would reduce building barriers and limit big investors' purchases of single-family homes was moments from being signed when Trump blew it up via Truth Social, demanding the SAVE Act — which requires passports or birth certificates to register to vote — first. ^{[1] — Jon Favreau "Minutes before a bipartisan housing affordability bill signing, Trump canceled it and demanded Congress pass the SAVE Act first. The SAVE A…" 03:30 Play} The hosts play Trump's Oval Office justification, in which he explains he made billions in housing and knows it's really about interest rates, not supply. Dan Pfeiffer calls the decision simply 'crazy,' painting the picture of a vulnerable Republican congressman who woke up expecting to claim a bipartisan win and instead got a surreal demand for a bill that has failed the Senate five times and would disproportionately harm the working-class voters that now form the GOP's core. The SAVE Act would also effectively end online and automatic voter registration. Pfeiffer notes the deepest irony: the thing Trump wants most is the one thing his own party can't give him, and it's driving him 'even more bananas than usual.' Jon flags reporting that Trump told advisers directly: 'no one gives a shit about housing,' while the SAVE Act slogan gets crowds on their feet at rallies.

After canceling the bill signing, Trump attended a Senate Republican lunch that quickly descended into chaos. ^{[1] — Jon Favreau "After canceling the housing bill signing, Trump attended a Senate lunch where he berated Republicans over Iran and got into a shouting matc…" 12:10 Play} According to Jon Favreau's account drawn from CNN and Punchbowl reporting, Trump berated senators over Iran, got into a shouting match with Bill Cassidy — a senator he recently helped push out of office — calling him a lunatic. Cassidy called Trump 'brother'; Trump told him he wasn't his brother. Cassidy eventually sat down, then changed his Iran war powers vote after receiving a White House briefing. Trump also noted that every senator who voted to convict him at impeachment is gone — then glanced at Lisa Murkowski, who was still there. Dan Pfeiffer zeroes in on the structural failure: not one Senate Republican, including those not up for reelection, told Trump to his face that the SAVE Act mathematically cannot pass. Ana Paulina Luna has meanwhile blocked all House floor business until the Senate passes the SAVE Act, paralyzing the chamber. The hosts then move to the $88 billion Iran war supplemental — a politically toxic ask given that 69% of Americans say the conflict wasn't worth the cost. ^{[2] — Dan Pfeiffer "69% say Iran war not worth the cost: A CBS poll found that 69% of Americans think the Iran war has not been worth the cost, making the $88 …" 17:20 Play} With gas prices still elevated and Medicaid cuts fresh, the vote will be a live grenade for Republican incumbents heading into the midterms.

The hosts pause for sponsor reads. Nutrafol is pitched as the number-one dermatologist-recommended hair growth supplement brand, with a $10 off offer at nutrafol.com/crooked. ZBiotics is introduced as a genetically engineered probiotic designed to break down the toxic byproduct of alcohol metabolism, with hosts offering a 15% off code at zbiotics.com/crooked. Dan Pfeiffer gives an enthusiastic personal endorsement, advising listeners to try it with two or three drinks on any given night.

Jon Favreau walks through the three races: In the 7th District, Claire Valdez won an open seat. In the 10th, progressive Brad Lander — a citywide official backed by Mayor Mamdani — defeated incumbent Dan Goldman in a race largely about Israel. The biggest shock came in the 13th, where four-term Congressman Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the first undocumented immigrant to serve in Congress, lost to Darielyza Avila Chevalier, a DSA-aligned community organizer who supports abolishing prisons, police, and all deportations. The hosts note that mainstream Democrats also won elsewhere in New York that night, but the three headline losses are dominating the conversation. Audio clips from James Carville demanding a party schism, Mamdani celebrating the democratic energy, and Hakeem Jeffries refusing to take the bait and keeping focus on Trump anchor the segment's emotional texture.

Pfeiffer opens with the historical stat: since 1946, over 98% of House incumbents win renomination, making Tuesday's double loss extraordinary. ^{[1] — Dan Pfeiffer "From 1946 to 2024, over 98% of House incumbents have won their party primaries. Two losing on the same night — including the chair of the C…" 27:30 Play} He distinguishes the three races: Valdez is a standard DSA candidate in the mold of AOC; Lander is a mainstream progressive with high name ID and mayoral backing who immediately pledged to work with frontline moderates; and Chevalier is a genuinely different case — the most far-left candidate to win a Democratic primary in modern memory. Jon Favreau then delivers a pointed assessment: Chevalier attended an October 8th rally condemned by Mamdani, AOC, and Lander; a week before winning she told the NY editorial board she opposes all deportations and refused four times to name any prison sentence appropriate for a convicted murderer. Democrats, Favreau argues, need to say clearly that her views range from 'moronic to abhorrent' — not to lump her in with DSA broadly, but because saying nothing makes voters think the party agrees. The broader pattern Pfeiffer identifies is unmistakable: Justice Democrats, DSA, and Our Revolution are out-organizing, out-fundraising, and out-maneuvering the party establishment in race after race, and Schumer or Jeffries endorsements have become liabilities rather than assets.

Jon and Dan survey the next wave of progressive primaries: Abdul El-Sayed leads the Michigan Senate race against Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens; DSA state rep Francesca Hong is running for Wisconsin governor; DSA candidate Melat Quiros challenges Diana DeGette in Colorado. Pfeiffer is careful not to make the electability argument against these candidates — he notes that dismissing liberal nominees as unelectable has been wrong before, and that running a smart, state-appropriate campaign matters more than ideological label. A key data point emerges: Gallup shows 66% of Democrats view socialism favorably, with men 30–44 — millennials who came of age in the Great Recession — showing the highest favorability of any cohort. ^{[1] — Dan Pfeiffer "Dan Pfeiffer identifies three reasons the Democratic base has turned on the party establishment: anger that leadership hasn't stood up to T…" 38:15 Play} Favreau argues the number reflects frustration with capitalism, not ideology: when people say 'socialism,' they picture Medicare for All, not abolishing prisons. Pfeiffer then distills the three forces powering anti-establishment energy: anger that Democrats failed to stand up to Trump, perception of corporate capture, and Israel-Gaza — with the Gaza issue particularly prominent in the Goldman and Chevalier races. And Favreau adds a fourth: the original sin of losing to Trump twice, after his criminal conviction and January 6th.

Dan Pfeiffer anchors the Rocket Money read with a personal anecdote: he discovered he'd been charged $10 a month for a streaming service he and his wife watched once during the pandemic and forgot to cancel. Rocket Money is pitched as saving users over $880 million in canceled subscriptions, with a plug for its spending tracker and real-time alert features at rocketmoney.com/crooked. The Fast Growing Trees nursery ad follows, with the hosts riffing on the 'proof is in the planting' tagline before landing the 20% off code at fastgrowingtrees.com.

The hosts set up the Vance segment with the Maggie Haberman / Jonathan Swan book anecdote: at a White House dinner, Trump asked Rupert Murdoch to rate Rubio and Vance in front of both men. Murdoch called Rubio 'brilliant' and said Vance 'has the potential to be great,' which Vance tried to laugh off. ^{[1] — Jon Favreau "JD Vance told Ross Douthat that criticism of the administration's unchristian tone is really just elites policing 'working-class communicat…" 57:20 Play} Then the hosts turn to the more consequential Douthat interview clip, where Vance argued that calling out Trump's 'tone of aggressive uncharity' is just elites policing working-class communication. Jon Favreau's reaction is visceral: Vance sounds like a right-wing version of a woke academic, the Manhattan billionaire calling Americans 'human scum' is not a working-class communication style, and asking people not to be cruel to neighbors is not an elite preference — it's Christian charity, the very thing Vance constantly invokes. Pfeiffer digs deeper into the contradiction: Vance came from poverty and rose through Ivy League education, venture capital, and Hollywood production to become Vice President — the definition of elite ascent — and now plays the anti-elitist while embodying every elite institution he once scorned. The segment is sharp, funny, and cuts to something real about the performance of authenticity in MAGA politics.

The JD Vance segment closes with a lighter but no less revealing moment. Usha Vance hosts a YouTube series reading to children, and this week's special guest was her husband, the Vice President. The clip opens with Usha thanking JD for joining, calling him 'honey,' and JD responding 'Good to see ya' before reaching across and delivering two measured pats on his wife's knee — then withdrawing the hand and sitting in silence. Jon Favreau urges listeners to pause and watch it on YouTube. Dan Pfeiffer notes that if there is any moment where a public figure should be able to relax and be themselves, it's sitting with their spouse. ^{[1] — Dan Pfeiffer "On Usha Vance's YouTube series, JD Vance greeted his own wife with two fatherly pats on the knee, pulled his hand back, and then both of th…" 1:04:00 Play} The hosts speculate about deleted takes — perhaps there are nine less affectionate knee pats on the White House cutting room floor — before closing with a shared joke that Rupert Murdoch must be reconsidering that 'potential to be great' assessment.

Jon Favreau anchors the Sundays for Dogs read with an anecdote about their dog Leo's enthusiasm for the air-dried, human-quality food. Sundays is pitched as over 80% all-natural meats finished with superfoods, with 50% off at SundaysForDogs.com/Crooked50. ThirdLove follows with its bra-fitting pitch — over 60 sizes including half-cup options — offering $15 off at thirdlove.com with code PODCAST15. OnDeck rounds out the break with its small business lending pitch.

Jon Favreau welcomes Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Texas, for a wide-ranging conversation about her campaign. Hinojosa opens by invoking her upbringing in Brownsville on the Rio Grande border, where as a child she asked her father why there were beggars in Mexico but none when they crossed back into Texas — and his answer was the American dream, built on a strong middle class. She never planned to run for office; she made her husband promise they never would. But when Abbott's policies threatened to shut down her son's school, she ran for the school board and won. The Texas House came next. Now, she frames the entire governor's race as a fight against 'the Greg Abbott corruption tax' — a system in which donor money drives policy, Texans pay 75% more in property taxes, 100+ schools are closing, 150+ districts have gone to 4-day weeks, and Corpus Christi risks running out of water. ^{[1] — Gina Hinojosa "Texas has 100+ schools closing, 150+ districts on 4-day weeks, the most uninsured children of any state, property taxes up 75%, and Corpus …" 1:12:10 Play} Her father's decade as Texas Democratic Party chair taught her one primary lesson: she did not want that life. But the legislature showed her that all Texas's problems trace back to the same root cause.

Jon Favreau confronts Hinojosa with the structural challenge: Abbott has over $100 million, and 33% of Texas voters told a recent poll they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. ^{[1] — Jon Favreau "Abbott sitting on $100M+ campaign war chest: Greg Abbott has more than $100 million in his campaign account heading into the 2026 Texas gub…" 1:15:12 Play} Hinojosa's response is strategically sharp: money matters when you need to tell people who you are — but Abbott's problem is that Texans already know who he is, and they don't want it anymore. The number-one response she hears when people find out she's running against Abbott is genuine surprise: 'He can run again? Don't we have term limits?' Her name ID has climbed 20 points since late last year; the polling gap has closed from 9 points down to 5 points. She describes organizing the state into 7 regions and running full congressional-style campaigns in each. The anti-incumbency energy she describes isn't abstract — it's the same force driving upsets across the country, and in Texas it's compounded by over a decade of Abbott delivering more for donors than for voters.

Jon Favreau asks what is actually happening to Texas public schools, and Hinojosa's answer is a precise political autopsy. She and James Salazar co-chaired the fight against vouchers in 2023, successfully recruiting rural Republicans to vote with them. Abbott's response was to spend $1 million per race to primary those Republicans out of office. With the rural opposition gone, vouchers passed. The voucher money, she argues, isn't flowing to better education — it's flowing to vendors connected to Abbott donors, exemplified by the $12 million contribution from out-of-state billionaire Jeff Yaz, the largest in Texas history. ^{[1] — Gina Hinojosa "Abbott received $12M — largest TX campaign contribution: Greg Abbott received a $12 million contribution from out-of-state billionaire Jeff…" 1:26:30 Play} Abbott's takeover of Houston ISD and push to replace teachers with 'education guides' in 100 AI schools is another front in the same war: extract money from public education, deliver it to connected interests. Hinojosa's positive vision is deliberately unglamorous: back to basics, pay teachers their worth, certify teachers properly — Texas is now hiring more uncertified teachers than certified ones, and one neighboring district's top source of new hires is foreign countries. She argues that Democrats have lost touch with this simple truth because nobody gets rich from paying teachers.

Jon Favreau probes the tension between Democratic assumptions about Latino voters and the 2024 reality. Hinojosa's analysis is pointed: Democrats have allowed Republicans to set the terms of the debate, spending energy on culture war fights instead of the core economic message. Her math is simple — if she hits Beto's 2018 mark of 64% of the Latino vote, she wins, because the Latino share of the Texas electorate has grown since then. ^{[1] — Gina Hinojosa "In 2018, Beto O'Rourke won 64% of the Latino vote and came within 2.5 points of winning Texas statewide. The Latino share of the Texas elec…" 1:31:00 Play} Taylor Ramette's 79% Latino support in the Tarrant County state Senate flip demonstrates what's possible. She is candid about immigration: she grew up on the border and wants real border security. The district attorney in Harris County, she notes, cannot prosecute child sex abuse cases because witnesses have been detained, deported, or are too afraid — making the current approach less safe, not more. She is equally candid that it is hard to ask Americans to be generous with immigration when they feel the American dream is out of reach for themselves. And she calls Biden's late-term border management a failure of leadership, noting that when she escalated the issue in December before his final year, a Biden-brokered enforcement deal with Mexico caused crossings to plummet almost immediately.

Jon Favreau asks the case for prioritizing Texas over other competitive races. Hinojosa's answer is structural and stark: after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, Texas Republicans have promised to redraw congressional maps next year. Under a Republican governor, Democrats could lose 5 congressional seats immediately, with another 4 to 5 following census-driven seat gains — a total of nearly 10 seats gone. The Texas governor controls 10% of Congress. ^{[1] — Gina Hinojosa "Texas will redraw congressional maps next year with no Voting Rights Act guardrails. If Republicans control the governorship, Democrats cou…" 1:33:10 Play} She frames this as existential for any Democratic path to a House majority. The screwworm crisis — a flesh-eating livestock parasite eradicated 60 years ago and now back in Texas due in part to DOGE-driven federal cuts to prevention programs — illustrates the cost of Abbott's inability to push back on Trump even when Texas ranchers suffer. Abbott has said nothing critical of the administration despite a Texas Secretary of Agriculture in the cabinet. Favreau closes the interview by noting that as Midwestern states drift redder, Texas's growth and potential flip become mathematically necessary for Democratic presidential math as well. The episode ends with credits and a tease of Dan Pfeiffer's upcoming interview with Strict Scrutiny's Leah Lippman.