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With Anthony Scaramucci at a literary festival in the south of England, Katty Kay turns to Joe Scarborough — co-host of MSNBC's Morning Joe and former Republican congressman from Florida — to fill the seat. The introduction is warm and playful: Kay stacks up Scarborough's many former identities, and the pair laugh about the social mobility of Southern state schools versus the fading cachet of Ivy League WASPy pedigree. Scarborough reflects that going to Washington and Lee before ending up in Florida turned out to be a blessing — it gives him licence to mock Trump administration officials with Southern state-school credentials. The banter sets the tone for a conversation that will be equal parts analytical and candid.

Katty Kay lays out what amounts to a state-of-emergency briefing on transatlantic relations. Trump has gone after leaders of at least five countries. The most dramatic development: Keir Starmer, who tried to charm Trump with an unprecedented second state visit offer, is stepping down. Giorgia Meloni — once seen as Trump's closest European ally — has turned on him and been rewarded with rapturous praise at home. Pete Hegseth has accused NATO members of free riding and called them shameful. And in Switzerland, Trump threatened to take over Iran if the Strait of Hormuz wasn't reopened, before Vance left the talks claiming great progress. Kay flags that she and Scarborough have already been discussing all of this on Morning Joe since 6am — they are, in effect, continuing the conversation live.

Scarborough opens with a number that lands like a slap: between Thatcher in 1979 and Blair's exit in 2007, Britain had just three prime ministers. He lived through the entirety of that stable era — high school, college, football coaching, musicals, law school, Congress, Morning Joe — all in the span of three British premiers ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "3 PMs in 30 years vs 6 since Brexit: Between 1979 and 2007 Britain had only 3 prime ministers, but since Brexit in 2016 it has had 6, illus…" 08:00 Play} . Since Brexit in 2016, that number has doubled to six, with four arriving just since 2022. For a self-described Anglophile, the spectacle is troubling. The deeper puzzle, he says, is that if the British political class understands Brexit was a colossal mistake, why can't the country simply reverse course? The answer he keeps getting: you just can't do it. Kay adds a pointed footnote — on America's 250th anniversary, the UK now has more social mobility than the United States, a stat that deserves its own episode.

Kay poses a thought experiment: if Joe Scarborough were flying to Manchester to advise Andy Burnham on taking power, what would he say? Before getting to Trump tactics, the hosts wrestle with the structural challenge Burnham would inherit. Kay invokes a cabinet minister's recent framing — that social democracy must be as much about a successful market economy as an active state — and draws a parallel to debates emerging in the US around figures like Mamdani and Platner. The central constraint Burnham faces, she argues, is that you cannot fund public services without growth. Scarborough agrees, and is already positioning himself to answer the Trump question in the next segment.

Scarborough draws on a conversation he had with Paul Ryan when Ryan became Speaker, warning him that Trump hates weakness above all else. Ryan, focused on policy, didn't listen — and Scarborough shook his head. The lesson for Andy Burnham and any European leader dealing with Trump is the same: be tough. Don't bow down. When Trump insults you, let it roll off, but never capitulate. Scarborough is emphatic that flattery doesn't work — he's tried it, and it fails. What does work is the Meloni approach: stand your ground, and Trump will eventually come around, or at least privately respect you. For Burnham specifically, there's an added domestic dimension: like Republicans facing US midterms, he needs to show he actually cares about working people — which for a Labour leader may require being more pro-business than is comfortable ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "Weakness is fatal when dealing with Trump. Scarborough draws on 20 years of knowing Trump personally to argue that flattery doesn't work, k…" 09:45 Play} .

Scarborough's most quotable line lands with precision: 'You can't buy Donald Trump, you can only rent him, and sometimes you can only rent him for 15 minutes' ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "No leader can truly secure Trump's loyalty. Scarborough's razor-sharp summary: you can't buy Donald Trump, you can only rent him — and some…" 12:00 Play} . It is a perfect summary of the futility of appeasement strategies, from Paul Ryan to Keir Starmer. But the counter-example is Meloni. Kay notes the extraordinary spectacle of Italy's right-wing press running banner headlines calling Trump an asshole — a sign that Meloni's defiance has brought her natural allies back onside ^{[2] — Katty Kay "Giorgia Meloni was supposed to be Trump's most devoted European ally. When she pushed back publicly, Italy's far-right press ran banner hea…" 12:40 Play} . When your far-right base is celebrating you for standing up to a right-wing American president, you've found a political gift. Scarborough argues this is proof of the rule: Trump will be far more likely to have a good working relationship with Meloni for fighting back than he would if she had bowed down. The contrast with Starmer — who went the extra mile with the state visit offer — is implicit but devastating.

Kay makes a case that goes beyond diplomatic tone: Europe holds actual economic cards and is simply refusing to play them. The EU plus UK has a GDP roughly matching America's $26–$27 trillion. Europe is a massive market for American pharmaceutical products. NATO provides genuine security value to the United States. China understood this logic and played its rare earth card when it needed to ^{[1] — Katty Kay "The EU plus UK has a GDP roughly equal to the United States — around $26–27 trillion. Russia's GDP is $1.4 trillion, smaller than Texas. Th…" 13:40 Play} . European leaders — and Kay explicitly includes Starmer — have instead been 'terrified' of matching Trump's aggression. She is not arguing for a trade war, but for a credible threat: the nuclear trade card kept in reserve, not deployed, but known to exist. Until European leaders are prepared to say 'we will look elsewhere,' they have no leverage whatsoever. Scarborough adds Canada's Mark Carney as a democratic-leader example: tough, not insulting, and slowly gaining Trump's grudging respect.

Carney arrived in power on the barest of margins and faced Trump's relentless taunts about making Canada the 51st state. A year in, Scarborough observes, people are talking about what a forceful leader Carney has become ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "Mark Carney came in on the thinnest of margins. A year in, people talk about what a forceful leader he's become. The secret: tough without …" 14:00 Play} . The formula is consistent: head down, move forward, use Trump's attacks as an opportunity to strengthen domestic standing. Scarborough notes Trump's psychology — he loves success, he loves winners — and Carney is projecting winner energy. The anecdote about Mamdani being asked in the Oval Office if he still thought Trump was a fascist, with Trump waving away the question, is offered as further proof: toughness disarms Trump more reliably than flattery. Scarborough uses the GDP comparison to hammer home the point that Europe's collective leverage is enormous — Trump's Russia fetishism, favouring a country with a GDP smaller than Texas, is the real strategic puzzle.

Scarborough draws on what he describes as an incredible quote from Haberman and Swan's new book: in 1990, Trump was asked about Tiananmen Square and responded by praising the Chinese Communist leadership for handling the student demonstrators 'the way you're supposed to handle those people,' while calling Gorbachev weak for not doing the same ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "In 1990, Trump compared Gorbachev unfavorably to Chinese communist leadership, praising the Tiananmen Square crackdown: 'They handled the s…" 19:35 Play} . The quote is striking not just for its moral callousness but for its consistency — the Trump of 1990 held the same view as the Trump of 2025. Strength always wins. This, Scarborough argues, is why Trump is drawn to Xi, Putin, and Orbán — not out of ideology, but out of a deep admiration for autocrats who project dominance. For Europe, this means the only language Trump responds to is strength. The hosts use this as a bridge to the structural challenge: Europe must become more unified militarily, economically, and technologically, and must compete for AI entrepreneurs and capital, or risk falling further behind.

The conversation turns from diplomacy to structural economics. Kay cites Rory Stewart's post-Starmer livestream observation: Europe's problem is twofold. First, it is not unified — the EU is 27 different countries with divergent interests. Second, and more insidiously, it is increasing its dependence on American tech at the very moment it should be reducing it ^{[1] — Katty Kay "Europe is increasing its dependence on American AI and technology exactly at the moment America looks like a less reliable ally. Without th…" 18:10 Play} . The UK's digital economy runs on American infrastructure. European industry is adopting American AI tools. This is happening right now, even as the Trump administration signals it views Europe as an adversary rather than an ally. Kay frames this as the core strategic failure: tough words mean nothing if your supply chain, your AI stack, and your financial markets all depend on the goodwill of an unpredictable American president. Scarborough concurs, noting that Angela Merkel had the right instinct in Trump's first term — saying Europe must look east and stop depending on the United States — but that the follow-through never came.

Kay steps out of the conversation for a brief promotion: this week's newsletter, written by historian Adam Smith, takes up the question of whether Donald Trump is the loneliest president in American history. Smith's argument, as summarised by Kay, is that by systematically purging his administration of anyone who pushes back, Trump has isolated himself in a way that has no real precedent in modern US political history. Readers can sign up at therestispoliticsus.com and expect the newsletter in their inboxes on Wednesday. The clip is brief but the question it poses — about the psychological and institutional consequences of Trump's purge of dissent — hangs over the rest of the episode.

The mid-roll break carries a detailed informational ad about Peyronie's disease (PD), a condition caused by scar tissue build-up under the skin of the penis, which can cause a curved erection and lead to pain and psychological impacts. The ad stresses that PD is treatable and that men should speak to a urology specialist. Listeners are directed to talkaboutpd.com. The ad runs multiple times across the break, emphasising the condition's underreported prevalence.

The Iran segment opens with a blunt assessment from Scarborough: a page-and-a-half MOU, a bumpy ceasefire that holds more or less at various points, and no prospect of a substantive nuclear deal — that is the best case ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "The MOU is the best-case scenario — and that's the problem. It leaves Iran free to enrich uranium, sell oil without sanctions, and rebuild …" 27:10 Play} . The Trump team, he argues, has neither the technical expertise nor the follow-through for real negotiations. What worries him more is the economic windfall Iran walks away with: roughly $100 billion in unfrozen funds, the ability to sell oil without sanctions, and a strengthened war machine. The $300 billion reparations figure — more than Germany paid at Versailles — will never be collected. The mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard, he insists, don't care about rebuilding Iranian infrastructure or improving lives; their only goal is staying in power. Kay adds Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour's observation: Western investment would be a Trojan horse for the regime, threatening the social control on which it depends. The clearest loser, both hosts agree, is the Iranian people.

Scarborough spells out the fundamental deadlock: Iran has drawn a hard red line on uranium enrichment; Trump declared the war was fought precisely to prevent Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon; and Israel will never allow the issue to drop while enrichment continues. Republicans in Congress, he predicts, won't let it go either. The result is a strategic cul-de-sac. Kay sharpens the irony: JD Vance is simultaneously releasing a book about his deep Catholic faith and suggesting that the Iranian regime — which has just sentenced a 29-year-old singer to 74 lashes for performing without a hijab, escalated persecution of minorities, and fast-tracked political prisoners to execution — is somehow more moderate and reasonable. The cognitive dissonance, she argues, is staggering. The Trump administration's claim that this is now a different, more normal Iran is exposed as fiction by the regime's own actions.

The Vance segment is Scarborough at his most cutting. He catalogs the contradictions: Vance attacked the Catholic Pope, a recent Catholic convert lecturing the Pope on theology so offensively that right-wing American Catholics were appalled. The same Vance called Trump 'cultural heroin' and 'America's Hitler.' Most damningly, Vance's conversion to Trumpism came not before or during the 2020 campaign, when it might have meant something — but in the weeks after January 6th, after the insurrection, after the lies, after the attempt to overturn democracy ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "Vance once called Trump 'cultural heroin' and 'America's Hitler.' His conversion came not during the 2020 campaign, but in the weeks after …" 33:05 Play} . He saw a Senate seat opportunity and made the calculation. Now he is in a competition with Marco Rubio for Trump's succession — and by all indications, Trump is leaning Rubio's way. The book includes a scene where Trump jokes 'Cubans love gold' when asked if his successor would tear down the White House's gilded decor. Vance, Scarborough argues, has been handed a losing brief on Iran — and Trump has already told people that if it fails, it's JD's fault, not his ^{[2] — Joe Scarborough "Trump sent Vance to Iran negotiations knowing the mission was impossible — and said as much. If it fails, it's JD's fault and not mine. Van…" 34:40 Play} . Vance has been set up to take the fall.

Scarborough frames the Iran endgame as a belated confirmation of something Dr. Brzezinski articulated clearly in 2012 ^{[1] — Joe Scarborough "You can't invade Iran. You can't go into Iran. They will shut off the strait. They'll never beat you in war, but you will be setting the wo…" 36:36 Play} : you cannot invade Iran. You cannot defeat it on its own terms. It will never beat the United States in conventional warfare, but Iran's asymmetric weapon — control of the Strait of Hormuz — means any military engagement sets the global economy alight. Trump, Scarborough argues, has simply figured out what everyone else already knew: there is no good way out. So he is hoping the American public will credit him with winning militarily, overlook the strategic concessions, and blame JD Vance for the capitulation. The pattern is familiar — America won every battle in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and lost all four wars. Iran is the fifth.

Kay poses the sharpest political question of the episode: does any of the strategic analysis matter if gas prices come down? Democrats are doing the forensic work — comparing enrichment percentages to the Obama deal, cataloging concessions — but Scarborough argues the White House has the better of the short-term politics ^{[1] — Katty Kay "Democrats are focused on whether 0.6% enrichment compares to the Obama deal. Voters will focus on gas prices coming down. The White House k…" 37:13 Play} . Falling gas prices, stabilising markets, and Iran off the front pages: that is the Republican play. The Epstein files briefly resurface as a complication — Trump's Iran adventure was launched the Friday before those stories broke, and Scarborough wonders whether Trump might find himself trading one crisis for another. But in the short run, Republicans benefit. The long-run verdict, he insists, is devastating: Bob Kagan has written that if this MOU is the endpoint, it will rank as one of the greatest military defeats in US history, comparable to Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The closing line is Kay's: in the long, long run, a world where every country decides it needs a nuclear weapon may be the real legacy of what just happened in Iran.

Kay closes by directing listeners to therestispoliticsus.com for a bonus founding member episode with Scarborough covering three additional topics: Bill Pulte's dramatic early tenure as acting director of national intelligence, the funding question around the $300 billion Iran pledge, and the structural reasons why American intelligence tends to misread the priorities of adversaries. She thanks Scarborough warmly, joking that they had to get rid of Anthony Scaramucci for a week to make the scheduling work. Scarborough signs off graciously, the episode wrapping after roughly 40 minutes of conversation that began at 6am on Morning Joe and ends here, somewhere in the middle of a world that looks harder to navigate by the day.