Rory Stewart warns that America restricting its most powerful AI to US citizens only is the tech equivalent of one country owning steam and electricity while the rest of the world has neither.
The Rest Is Politics
Rory Stewart warns that America restricting its most powerful AI to US citizens only is the tech equivalent of one country owning steam and electricity while the rest of the world has neither.
TL;DR
Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell tackle three urgent questions: whether the US restricting its most advanced AI model to American citizens marks the start of Western technological vassalage [1] — Rory Stewart "The US has restricted its most capable AI model to American citizens only — not because it's an existential threat, but because it's a comp…" , why Britain's defence procurement is dangerously ill-suited to modern warfare [2] — Rory Stewart "The US can bet on every defence capability simultaneously. The UK cannot. Aircraft carriers need a support fleet we can't afford. The GCAP …" 19:30 , and what Trump's UFC birthday spectacle at the White House reveals about the normalisation of his presidency [3] — Alastair Campbell "Trump moved the G7 summit start date by a day so he could hold a UFC birthday event on the White House lawn. Only 13% of Americans approved…" 31:40 . They also riff on the razor-thin Peruvian election and Alastair's increasingly tortured World Cup boycott. The key takeaway: Europe must invest hundreds of billions in sovereign AI infrastructure now, or risk being switched off entirely.
Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell discuss the US restriction of Anthropic's advanced AI model, the implications for UK and European sovereignty, Britain's defence procurement crisis following John Healey's resignation, Trump's UFC White House birthday spectacle, the razor-thin Peruvian election, and Alastair's wavering World Cup boycott.
The episode opens with Rory Stewart's urgent framing of a week-old news story that carries enormous strategic implications. The United States has for the first time stopped its most capable AI model at the border, designating it a national security asset available only to Americans. Stewart notes he spent months warning this could happen and was repeatedly dismissed as catastrophising. His central question is sharp and uncomfortable: if the defining technology of the next century is something Europe can only rent, and which America can withdraw at will, are we still powers that govern ourselves — or have we quietly become vassals? He promises a radical answer.
A sponsorship segment for Fuse Energy, framed around the chaos of moving house and the tendency to ignore energy switching. The hosts explain that switching takes 3 minutes via Fuse Energy, could save up to £200 on bills, and that listeners using code POLITICS receive a free Trip+ subscription on top. Almost 300,000 customers are cited as having already switched.
This segment features pre-roll advertising including a BetterHelp ad referencing their 2026 State of Stigma report finding that 74% of Americans believe society discourages asking for help, promoting online licensed therapy. This is followed by pharmaceutical advertising for Tremfya, a prescription medication for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.
The formal episode introduction with both hosts presenting the week's agenda. Alastair Campbell sets up the three major discussion threads — the geopolitical implications of the US AI model restriction, Peru's extraordinary presidential election, and the UFC cage fighting event on the White House lawn for Trump's birthday — framing it as a genuinely consequential week in global politics.
Rory Stewart provides a accessible but sobering account of how dramatically AI has improved in just 2.5 years: from barely managing A-level maths to approaching advanced graduate-level mathematics, and from replicating half an hour of software work per minute to 48 hours per minute [1] — Rory Stewart "AI software productivity gain: AI can now do what a human software programmer does in 48 hours in about one minute, compared to 2.5 years a…" 08:00 . He then confronts the week's central news: the US has done exactly what he predicted and been ridiculed for predicting — restricting its most capable AI to American citizens on national security grounds. Stewart distinguishes sharply between the logic of 'this is dangerous and nobody should have it' (which would mean not releasing it at all) and the actual decision, which is 'this is so powerful that only Americans get it.' That, he argues, is not a security measure but a competitive power play — treating AI like the latest fighter jet, except one that's also steam and electricity combined [2] — Rory Stewart "The logic of only releasing it to American citizens is completely different. That's saying this is such a powerful competitive advantage fo…" 06:24 .
Alastair Campbell presses on the practical implications — NHS data projects stuck on older, less capable models while America races ahead, and the cyber-defence nightmare of having only offensive AI and no defensive equivalent. Stewart sets out the stark arithmetic: US Frontier labs will spend $740 billion over the next 2–3 years [1] — Rory Stewart "Frontier AI labs $740B spend: US Frontier AI Labs are likely to spend over $740 billion over the next 2–3 years, a scale that makes soverei…" 11:56 ; Europe is 'massively far behind'; and catching up would require hundreds of billions in data centres, talent, and chips. He deploys the Eurofighter analogy — yes, it's never quite as good as the American F-35, but at least it exists when you need it. The counterargument, which Stewart fairly presents, is that America needs European markets and data too, that open-source Chinese models provide an alternative, and that the real value is in building the application layer anyway. But Stewart's conclusion is uncompromising: we have to make the impossible bet, because the alternative is being switched off entirely [2] — Rory Stewart "The counterargument says America won't cut Europe off — they need our markets and our data. But Rory Stewart says betting on that goodwill …" 11:00 .
The conversation turns to the specific dynamics between the Trump administration and Anthropic. Campbell recalls Anthropic's earlier clash with the Pentagon, which refused to allow certain military uses of its technology — leading to accusations from Hegseth that Anthropic was promoting 'woke AI' and was run by an 'ideological lunatic.' Stewart acknowledges the ambiguity: Anthropic may or may not be ahead of all competitors, and the administration's motivations may or may not be genuine security concerns rather than corporate vengeance. Anthropic's formal response — asking the White House to specify the national security grounds so it could understand what differentiated its model from competitors — highlights the absurdity: even the company doesn't know if it's being regulated or punished. Stewart adds a further irony: restricting access to US citizens only would devastate the very immigrant talent base that built Silicon Valley, with Anthropic alone having over 100 first languages among its staff [1] — Alastair Campbell "Anthropic: 100+ first languages: Anthropic employs staff with over 100 different first languages, reflecting the immigrant-heavy culture of…" 18:18 .
With the US spending a trillion dollars a year on defence and able to 'bet on everything,' the UK faces brutal prioritisation decisions it is politically incapable of making. Stewart runs through the five main defence capabilities Britain theoretically wants — aircraft carriers, a sixth-generation fighter (GCAP), advanced submarines, army recapitalisation, and munitions stockpiling — and argues bluntly that the country cannot afford all five simultaneously [1] — Rory Stewart "US defence spend: The US spends approximately one trillion dollars a year on defence, enabling it to bet on every capability simultaneously…" 19:39 . He singles out aircraft carriers as the most obvious candidate for cancellation: they only work with a support fleet Britain can't afford, and they were designed for counter-insurgency projection into the Indo-Pacific, a mission Britain has largely abandoned. The GCAP fighter is equally questionable: due in 2040, at perhaps £200 million per unit, possibly obsolete before completion in a world of cheap mass drones [2] — Rory Stewart "GCAP fighter delivery date: 2040: The GCAP fighter jet being developed with Italy and Japan won't be delivered until 2040, raising serious …" 21:30 . Campbell connects this to John Healey's resignation, suggesting the former Defence Secretary was particularly frustrated by the Treasury blocking the Canadian-proposed Defence Security and Resilience Bank.
Stewart offers a bracing taxonomy of modern warfare. Ukraine represents one model: endless cheap hovering drones, frozen frontlines, software updated every few weeks and hardware every few months. Iran represents the other: the fulfilment of the US-Israeli planners' dream, where exquisite precision-guided munitions wipe out all enemy air defences within 24 hours, after which fancy aircraft can operate freely. Britain, faced with a potential Russia threat to Europe, has to choose: does it build for the Ukrainian model of defence in depth and mass drones, or for the US-Israeli model of ultra-expensive high-precision strikes? Stewart's answer is that neither choice justifies the GCAP programme — and that the real investment should go into the engineers, manufacturing capacity and AI infrastructure to produce new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months rather than betting on any specific exquisite platform [1] — Rory Stewart "Modern warfare hardware cycle: 6 months: Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months, making long-le…" 25:05 .
A listener pushback from Andrew Kinniburgh, Director General of Make UK, takes on Rory's earlier suggestion that defence spending is not a productive economic investment. Kinniburgh points to Barrow, Plymouth, Yeovil and Clyde as communities whose economic vitality depends on defence contracts, and aligns with Healey and former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace in their frustration with a Treasury unwilling to consider the Defence Security and Resilience Bank. Stewart's response is nuanced: academic research does suggest that pound for pound, education, infrastructure and skills generate more economic growth than defence procurement. But he insists that framing misses the point entirely — the case for defence spending is the threat from Russia and the collapse of US reliability, not GDP optimisation [1] — Rory Stewart "The reason to go for defense is not that it's the cheapest way of getting economic growth. The reason to go for defense is there's a threat…" 28:08 . Campbell adds that Britain doesn't invest properly in education, skills or infrastructure either, making the trade-off somewhat moot in practice.
A sponsorship read for Vauxhall covering the brand's support for UK electric vehicle infrastructure through its Electric Streets of Britain initiative, its partnership with Team GB ahead of the 2028 Olympics, and the launch of the new Grandland Griffin — a large family SUV available in electric and mild hybrid versions. An additional £1,500 discount is available through the electric car grant.
A pair of third-party advertisements: first, an awareness ad for Peyronie's disease, a condition caused by scar tissue under the skin of the penis that can cause curvature and impact mental health, directing listeners to TalkAboutPD.com; second, a promotion for Sally, a college funding and scholarship guidance platform aimed at parents.
Back from the break, Alastair Campbell recounts what he calls the 'utterly hideous' spectacle of UFC cage fighting on the White House lawn for Trump's 79th birthday. The setting was surreal: a makeshift stadium, Evel Knievel-style motorbike riders, and the presidential honour guard — normally reserved for heads of state — welcoming the fighters as they entered. Campbell describes watching a French-African fighter destroy his opponent within seconds, the crowd chanting 'USA, USA.' The post-fight interview proved most remarkable: a fighter thanked Trump as the only man alive who could stage this, claimed his second-greatest love was Jesus Christ, and then asserted that Michelle Obama is a man. Campbell noted even the pro-Trump crowd seemed briefly uncomfortable. Rory observed that the whole spectacle felt 'quite Roman Empire' — gladiatorial games staged by an emperor [1] — Rory Stewart "It's quite Roman Empire, isn't it? Because actually what I feel, look, seeing the blood, is it's like gladiatorial games." 34:14 . Campbell adds that it was filmed on one of Larry Ellison's channels, that Truth Social was a sponsor, and that Trump is a shareholder in UFC — a neat summary of the corruption ecosystem.
Rory Stewart uses the UFC spectacle to ask a broader question about masculinity and politics: would this have happened 20 or 30 years ago, and are we becoming more violent? He and Campbell discuss the abandoned Musk-Zuckerberg fight — reportedly cancelled when Musk discovered that Zuckerberg had been training seriously for two hours a day with a martial arts master. Campbell notes polling: only 13% of Americans approved of the White House UFC event, and only one in three Republicans [1] — Alastair Campbell "White House UFC support: 13%: Only 13% of Americans thought the UFC event on the White House lawn was a good use of the venue, with even Re…" 36:15 . The hosts then connect this to a broader question about Trump's birthday priorities: the G7 summit was delayed by a full day because Trump wanted his UFC event first. Rory draws a structural comparison: Trump as Roman emperor, staging spectacles for his own gratification and expecting the world to accommodate his schedule [2] — Alastair Campbell "G7 summit delayed for UFC: The G7 summit started one day later than originally scheduled because Trump wanted to hold his UFC birthday even…" 36:55 .
Alastair Campbell shifts to a structural media argument, drawing on a German interlocutor's use of the term 'banalisation' to describe how the Springer newspaper group had normalised the AfD — and arguing Trump has been through that process already. He recounts an off-stage encounter with Jacob Rees-Mogg discussing Nigel Farage's Trump-like capacity to survive scandal, noting that you only survive scandal if politics and media let you. Campbell welcomes Mehdi Hasan's return to British political journalism, expressing concern that UK and US media are too soft. Rory pushes back on Democratic advice to stop raging about the UFC event — he had spoken to a senior US foreign policy figure who was cautiously optimistic that Trump had actually strengthened Europe by forcing it to stand on its own feet. Stewart rejected that analysis entirely: anyone who thinks we come out of the Trump era with stronger alliances simply doesn't understand what has changed.
Alastair Campbell, by his own admission obsessively following the Peruvian election, walks through one of the closest national presidential elections in modern history. It is a classic left-right contest: left-wing Roberto Sánchez against Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the divisional former president. The first count produced 9,036,046 for Fujimori and 9,034,743 for Sánchez — 50.004% against 49.996% [1] — Alastair Campbell "Peru election margin: 0.008%: The Peruvian presidential election between Fujimori and Sánchez produced a margin of 50.004% vs 49.996% — one…" 41:10 . As overseas votes came in and benefited Fujimori, Sánchez demanded a total recount and the tallies entered the courts, with the outcome still unclear. Rory adds context: Fujimori had been expected to be knocked out in the first round by Lima's popular social-media-savvy mayor. She's a remarkable survivor, having stood for the presidency multiple times with her party dominating parliament. Campbell draws a Le Pen parallel — a candidate trying to escape a toxic father's shadow — while noting that in Fujimori's case the shadow didn't damage her enough to cost her the first round.
The episode's lightest segment turns on Alastair Campbell's increasingly tortured position: he publicly declared he would not attend the Trump-hosted 2026 World Cup, and now Scotland have qualified and are producing moments of pure fan euphoria. Scotland's supporters singing Flower of Scotland was recorded as the loudest moment in World Cup history [1] — Alastair Campbell "Scotland fan noise: loudest in WC history: When Scotland fans sang Flower of Scotland at the World Cup, it was recorded as the loudest mome…" 45:00 . Even better, thousands of Scots fans descended on Fenway Park for a Red Sox game, led by a pipe band, and spent the entire match singing Flower of Scotland, Loch Lomond and Yes Sir, I Can Boogie — to the bewildered delight of American media. Campbell admits he has commitments he cannot break for the Morocco and Brazil games, but acknowledges the real test will come when Scotland progress to the knockout stages. Scotland's World Cup winning odds on Polymarket stand at around 0.2% [2] — Alastair Campbell "Scotland World Cup odds: ~0.2%: Polymarket put Scotland's chances of winning the World Cup at approximately 0.2%, yet Alastair Campbell adm…" 45:45 — but for Campbell, the issue was never about winning. Rory teases him mercilessly, offering forgiveness in advance but noting that having publicly announced the boycott, explaining himself will be the harder task.
The conversation loosens into a more playful register. Campbell pursues his hobby horse: tracking former Burnley FC players representing national teams at the World Cup. Haiti's centre-back made 12 appearances for Burnley; New Zealand's captain Chris Wood is a former Burnley striker. Germany's 7–1 win over Curaçao and Iran's 2–2 draw with New Zealand both get brief analysis. The hosts then return to the UFC question via parenting: Rory says he would sit his children down to watch the World Cup but won't let a 9-year-old watch UFC, where fighters are 'clinically destroyed' with blood everywhere. Campbell connects this to UFC's evolution: the wrestling and grappling-heavy style that has largely replaced kick-based fighting, and the names that defined the sport — Bruce Lee in the cultural imagination, Royce Gracie technically, Conor McGregor as the celebrity apex.
The hosts close with a short tease for Thursday's Makerfield by-election — described by Campbell as one of the most covered by-elections ever — with a promise to discuss the result in a special Friday episode. Rory jokes that the winner, Robert Kenyon, could be Britain's next prime minister, prompting Campbell's mock-incredulous response. It is the kind of political inside-baseball that the show's regular listeners relish.
The episode closes with a Father's Day promotional push for The Rest Is Politics Plus membership, offering a 25% discount on annual gifted memberships and listing the benefits: early access to Question Time, members-only miniseries, and exclusive newsletters. This is followed by a Ryan Reynolds-voiced Mint Mobile ad promoting $15/month unlimited wireless, and a preview from sibling show The Rest Is Classified, teasing a new series on the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko — described as a story of personal tragedy, espionage, political conspiracy and the British state's willingness to suppress truth to maintain diplomatic relations.
Chapter 1 · 00:00
The episode opens with Rory Stewart's urgent framing of a week-old news story that carries enormous strategic implications. The United States has for the first time stopped its most capable AI model at the border, designating it a national security asset available only to Americans. Stewart notes he spent months warning this could happen and was repeatedly dismissed as catastrophising. His central question is sharp and uncomfortable: if the defining technology of the next century is something Europe can only rent, and which America can withdraw at will, are we still powers that govern ourselves — or have we quietly become vassals? He promises a radical answer.
The US has restricted its most capable AI model to American citizens only — not because it's an existential threat, but because it's a competitive weapon. If this is the future, Europe is already in the position of a country that doesn't own its own electricity grid.
Chapter 5 · 04:35
Rory Stewart provides a accessible but sobering account of how dramatically AI has improved in just 2.5 years: from barely managing A-level maths to approaching advanced graduate-level mathematics, and from replicating half an hour of software work per minute to 48 hours per minute [1] — Rory Stewart "AI software productivity gain: AI can now do what a human software programmer does in 48 hours in about one minute, compared to 2.5 years a…" 08:00 . He then confronts the week's central news: the US has done exactly what he predicted and been ridiculed for predicting — restricting its most capable AI to American citizens on national security grounds. Stewart distinguishes sharply between the logic of 'this is dangerous and nobody should have it' (which would mean not releasing it at all) and the actual decision, which is 'this is so powerful that only Americans get it.' That, he argues, is not a security measure but a competitive power play — treating AI like the latest fighter jet, except one that's also steam and electricity combined [2] — Rory Stewart "The logic of only releasing it to American citizens is completely different. That's saying this is such a powerful competitive advantage fo…" 06:24 .
Claims made here
AI models can now complete what a human software programmer takes 48 hours to do in approximately one minute.
Two and a half years ago AI could barely do A-level maths. Now it approaches advanced graduate-level work. A human software programmer's 48-hour task takes AI about one minute. The speed of this change makes every 15-year procurement plan obsolete before it starts.
AI can now do what a human software programmer does in 48 hours in about one minute, compared to 2.5 years ago when it could only replicate about half an hour of work per minute.
Chapter 6 · 10:20
Alastair Campbell presses on the practical implications — NHS data projects stuck on older, less capable models while America races ahead, and the cyber-defence nightmare of having only offensive AI and no defensive equivalent. Stewart sets out the stark arithmetic: US Frontier labs will spend $740 billion over the next 2–3 years [1] — Rory Stewart "Frontier AI labs $740B spend: US Frontier AI Labs are likely to spend over $740 billion over the next 2–3 years, a scale that makes soverei…" 11:56 ; Europe is 'massively far behind'; and catching up would require hundreds of billions in data centres, talent, and chips. He deploys the Eurofighter analogy — yes, it's never quite as good as the American F-35, but at least it exists when you need it. The counterargument, which Stewart fairly presents, is that America needs European markets and data too, that open-source Chinese models provide an alternative, and that the real value is in building the application layer anyway. But Stewart's conclusion is uncompromising: we have to make the impossible bet, because the alternative is being switched off entirely [2] — Rory Stewart "The counterargument says America won't cut Europe off — they need our markets and our data. But Rory Stewart says betting on that goodwill …" 11:00 .
Claims made here
US Frontier AI labs are likely to spend over $740 billion on AI development over the next 2–3 years.
The counterargument says America won't cut Europe off — they need our markets and our data. But Rory Stewart says betting on that goodwill is like Shaka Zulu assuming the Industrial Revolution won't reach him. The Eurofighter was never as good as the F-35, but at least it existed when you needed it.
US Frontier AI Labs are likely to spend over $740 billion over the next 2–3 years, a scale that makes sovereign European AI infrastructure extremely costly to replicate.
Building sovereign AI infrastructure for Europe and the UK would require hundreds of billions of pounds of investment in data centres, chips and talent — a genuine moonshot.
Chapter 7 · 16:10
The conversation turns to the specific dynamics between the Trump administration and Anthropic. Campbell recalls Anthropic's earlier clash with the Pentagon, which refused to allow certain military uses of its technology — leading to accusations from Hegseth that Anthropic was promoting 'woke AI' and was run by an 'ideological lunatic.' Stewart acknowledges the ambiguity: Anthropic may or may not be ahead of all competitors, and the administration's motivations may or may not be genuine security concerns rather than corporate vengeance. Anthropic's formal response — asking the White House to specify the national security grounds so it could understand what differentiated its model from competitors — highlights the absurdity: even the company doesn't know if it's being regulated or punished. Stewart adds a further irony: restricting access to US citizens only would devastate the very immigrant talent base that built Silicon Valley, with Anthropic alone having over 100 first languages among its staff [1] — Alastair Campbell "Anthropic: 100+ first languages: Anthropic employs staff with over 100 different first languages, reflecting the immigrant-heavy culture of…" 18:18 .
Claims made here
Anthropic employs staff who speak over 100 different first languages.
Pete Hegseth cheerfully declared Anthropic a bad company and celebrated blocking its export. Anthropic responded by asking the administration to explain the specific grounds so it could understand what differentiated its model from competitors. The Trump administration's inability to separate genuine security concern from corporate grudge is the central problem.
Over 100 first languages are spoken at Anthropic. The presenters at AI conferences across America are German, South Asian, Iranian. Silicon Valley's greatness is an immigrant story. Restricting advanced AI access to US citizens alone doesn't just hurt allies — it guts the workforce that built the technology in the first place.
Anthropic employs staff with over 100 different first languages, reflecting the immigrant-heavy culture of Silicon Valley that a US-citizens-only AI access rule would devastate.
Chapter 8 · 19:30
With the US spending a trillion dollars a year on defence and able to 'bet on everything,' the UK faces brutal prioritisation decisions it is politically incapable of making. Stewart runs through the five main defence capabilities Britain theoretically wants — aircraft carriers, a sixth-generation fighter (GCAP), advanced submarines, army recapitalisation, and munitions stockpiling — and argues bluntly that the country cannot afford all five simultaneously [1] — Rory Stewart "US defence spend: The US spends approximately one trillion dollars a year on defence, enabling it to bet on every capability simultaneously…" 19:39 . He singles out aircraft carriers as the most obvious candidate for cancellation: they only work with a support fleet Britain can't afford, and they were designed for counter-insurgency projection into the Indo-Pacific, a mission Britain has largely abandoned. The GCAP fighter is equally questionable: due in 2040, at perhaps £200 million per unit, possibly obsolete before completion in a world of cheap mass drones [2] — Rory Stewart "GCAP fighter delivery date: 2040: The GCAP fighter jet being developed with Italy and Japan won't be delivered until 2040, raising serious …" 21:30 . Campbell connects this to John Healey's resignation, suggesting the former Defence Secretary was particularly frustrated by the Treasury blocking the Canadian-proposed Defence Security and Resilience Bank.
Claims made here
The United States spends approximately one trillion dollars a year on defence.
The GCAP fighter jet being developed with Italy and Japan will not be delivered until 2040.
The US can bet on every defence capability simultaneously. The UK cannot. Aircraft carriers need a support fleet we can't afford. The GCAP fighter arrives in 2040, by which time drone warfare may have made it irrelevant. The real investment needed is in the engineers and industrial capacity to produce new software every 6 weeks.
The US spends approximately one trillion dollars a year on defence, enabling it to bet on every capability simultaneously — a luxury the UK cannot afford.
The GCAP fighter jet being developed with Italy and Japan won't be delivered until 2040, raising serious questions about its relevance in a world increasingly defined by drones and AI.
John Healey's resignation letter included a cryptic line about 'other ways of raising money without causing too much trouble in the markets.' What it referred to was the Canadian-proposed Defence Security and Resilience Bank — a vehicle for defence investment that avoids hitting fiscal rules. The Treasury blocked it. The gap between defence need and fiscal reality has never been wider.
Chapter 9 · 23:00
Stewart offers a bracing taxonomy of modern warfare. Ukraine represents one model: endless cheap hovering drones, frozen frontlines, software updated every few weeks and hardware every few months. Iran represents the other: the fulfilment of the US-Israeli planners' dream, where exquisite precision-guided munitions wipe out all enemy air defences within 24 hours, after which fancy aircraft can operate freely. Britain, faced with a potential Russia threat to Europe, has to choose: does it build for the Ukrainian model of defence in depth and mass drones, or for the US-Israeli model of ultra-expensive high-precision strikes? Stewart's answer is that neither choice justifies the GCAP programme — and that the real investment should go into the engineers, manufacturing capacity and AI infrastructure to produce new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months rather than betting on any specific exquisite platform [1] — Rory Stewart "Modern warfare hardware cycle: 6 months: Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months, making long-le…" 25:05 .
Claims made here
Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months.
Ukraine is a war of cheap hovering drones and frozen frontlines. Iran was the dream of US-Israeli planners — exquisite expensive aircraft taking out all air defences in 24 hours. Britain has to decide which model it is building for, and neither answer justifies a fighter jet that won't arrive until 2040.
Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months, making long-lead 15-year weapons programmes strategically obsolete.
Chapter 10 · 26:00
A listener pushback from Andrew Kinniburgh, Director General of Make UK, takes on Rory's earlier suggestion that defence spending is not a productive economic investment. Kinniburgh points to Barrow, Plymouth, Yeovil and Clyde as communities whose economic vitality depends on defence contracts, and aligns with Healey and former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace in their frustration with a Treasury unwilling to consider the Defence Security and Resilience Bank. Stewart's response is nuanced: academic research does suggest that pound for pound, education, infrastructure and skills generate more economic growth than defence procurement. But he insists that framing misses the point entirely — the case for defence spending is the threat from Russia and the collapse of US reliability, not GDP optimisation [1] — Rory Stewart "The reason to go for defense is not that it's the cheapest way of getting economic growth. The reason to go for defense is there's a threat…" 28:08 . Campbell adds that Britain doesn't invest properly in education, skills or infrastructure either, making the trade-off somewhat moot in practice.
Claims made here
Academic research generally concludes that pound for pound, investing in education, infrastructure and skills generates more economic growth than investing in defence.
Chapter 13 · 31:36
Back from the break, Alastair Campbell recounts what he calls the 'utterly hideous' spectacle of UFC cage fighting on the White House lawn for Trump's 79th birthday. The setting was surreal: a makeshift stadium, Evel Knievel-style motorbike riders, and the presidential honour guard — normally reserved for heads of state — welcoming the fighters as they entered. Campbell describes watching a French-African fighter destroy his opponent within seconds, the crowd chanting 'USA, USA.' The post-fight interview proved most remarkable: a fighter thanked Trump as the only man alive who could stage this, claimed his second-greatest love was Jesus Christ, and then asserted that Michelle Obama is a man. Campbell noted even the pro-Trump crowd seemed briefly uncomfortable. Rory observed that the whole spectacle felt 'quite Roman Empire' — gladiatorial games staged by an emperor [1] — Rory Stewart "It's quite Roman Empire, isn't it? Because actually what I feel, look, seeing the blood, is it's like gladiatorial games." 34:14 . Campbell adds that it was filmed on one of Larry Ellison's channels, that Truth Social was a sponsor, and that Trump is a shareholder in UFC — a neat summary of the corruption ecosystem.
Claims made here
Elon Musk has recently become the world's first trillionaire.
Trump moved the G7 summit start date by a day so he could hold a UFC birthday event on the White House lawn. Only 13% of Americans approved. One fighter thanked Trump and then claimed Michelle Obama is a man. It was, as Rory put it, quite Roman Empire.
Chapter 14 · 35:10
Rory Stewart uses the UFC spectacle to ask a broader question about masculinity and politics: would this have happened 20 or 30 years ago, and are we becoming more violent? He and Campbell discuss the abandoned Musk-Zuckerberg fight — reportedly cancelled when Musk discovered that Zuckerberg had been training seriously for two hours a day with a martial arts master. Campbell notes polling: only 13% of Americans approved of the White House UFC event, and only one in three Republicans [1] — Alastair Campbell "White House UFC support: 13%: Only 13% of Americans thought the UFC event on the White House lawn was a good use of the venue, with even Re…" 36:15 . The hosts then connect this to a broader question about Trump's birthday priorities: the G7 summit was delayed by a full day because Trump wanted his UFC event first. Rory draws a structural comparison: Trump as Roman emperor, staging spectacles for his own gratification and expecting the world to accommodate his schedule [2] — Alastair Campbell "G7 summit delayed for UFC: The G7 summit started one day later than originally scheduled because Trump wanted to hold his UFC birthday even…" 36:55 .
Claims made here
Only 13% of Americans thought the UFC event at the White House was a good use of the venue.
The G7 summit started one day later than originally scheduled because Trump wanted to hold his UFC birthday event first.
Only 13% of Americans thought the UFC event on the White House lawn was a good use of the venue, with even Republicans only 1-in-3 in favour.
The G7 summit started one day later than originally scheduled because Trump wanted to hold his UFC birthday event first, illustrating his personal priorities overriding diplomatic schedules.
Chapter 15 · 38:20
Alastair Campbell shifts to a structural media argument, drawing on a German interlocutor's use of the term 'banalisation' to describe how the Springer newspaper group had normalised the AfD — and arguing Trump has been through that process already. He recounts an off-stage encounter with Jacob Rees-Mogg discussing Nigel Farage's Trump-like capacity to survive scandal, noting that you only survive scandal if politics and media let you. Campbell welcomes Mehdi Hasan's return to British political journalism, expressing concern that UK and US media are too soft. Rory pushes back on Democratic advice to stop raging about the UFC event — he had spoken to a senior US foreign policy figure who was cautiously optimistic that Trump had actually strengthened Europe by forcing it to stand on its own feet. Stewart rejected that analysis entirely: anyone who thinks we come out of the Trump era with stronger alliances simply doesn't understand what has changed.
Alastair Campbell invoked the German concept of 'banalisation' — the process by which the AfD became normalised in German media — and argued Trump has already been fully banalised in the US and UK press. A Democrat friend told him to stop getting angry about the UFC event because that's exactly what Trump wants. Campbell rejected the advice.
Fujimori vs Sánchez in Peru: 9,036,046 votes to 9,034,743. A margin of 0.008%. The votes are now in the courts, Sánchez is demanding a recount, and no one knows who will be president. Alastair Campbell says he's never followed a foreign election this closely — and may never see a closer one.
Chapter 16 · 39:55
Alastair Campbell, by his own admission obsessively following the Peruvian election, walks through one of the closest national presidential elections in modern history. It is a classic left-right contest: left-wing Roberto Sánchez against Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the divisional former president. The first count produced 9,036,046 for Fujimori and 9,034,743 for Sánchez — 50.004% against 49.996% [1] — Alastair Campbell "Peru election margin: 0.008%: The Peruvian presidential election between Fujimori and Sánchez produced a margin of 50.004% vs 49.996% — one…" 41:10 . As overseas votes came in and benefited Fujimori, Sánchez demanded a total recount and the tallies entered the courts, with the outcome still unclear. Rory adds context: Fujimori had been expected to be knocked out in the first round by Lima's popular social-media-savvy mayor. She's a remarkable survivor, having stood for the presidency multiple times with her party dominating parliament. Campbell draws a Le Pen parallel — a candidate trying to escape a toxic father's shadow — while noting that in Fujimori's case the shadow didn't damage her enough to cost her the first round.
Claims made here
The Peruvian presidential election result was 50.004% for Fujimori against 49.996% for Sánchez — a margin of approximately 1,303 votes.
The Peruvian presidential election between Fujimori and Sánchez produced a margin of 50.004% vs 49.996% — one of the closest national presidential contests ever recorded.
Chapter 17 · 43:35
The episode's lightest segment turns on Alastair Campbell's increasingly tortured position: he publicly declared he would not attend the Trump-hosted 2026 World Cup, and now Scotland have qualified and are producing moments of pure fan euphoria. Scotland's supporters singing Flower of Scotland was recorded as the loudest moment in World Cup history [1] — Alastair Campbell "Scotland fan noise: loudest in WC history: When Scotland fans sang Flower of Scotland at the World Cup, it was recorded as the loudest mome…" 45:00 . Even better, thousands of Scots fans descended on Fenway Park for a Red Sox game, led by a pipe band, and spent the entire match singing Flower of Scotland, Loch Lomond and Yes Sir, I Can Boogie — to the bewildered delight of American media. Campbell admits he has commitments he cannot break for the Morocco and Brazil games, but acknowledges the real test will come when Scotland progress to the knockout stages. Scotland's World Cup winning odds on Polymarket stand at around 0.2% [2] — Alastair Campbell "Scotland World Cup odds: ~0.2%: Polymarket put Scotland's chances of winning the World Cup at approximately 0.2%, yet Alastair Campbell adm…" 45:45 — but for Campbell, the issue was never about winning. Rory teases him mercilessly, offering forgiveness in advance but noting that having publicly announced the boycott, explaining himself will be the harder task.
Claims made here
Scotland fans singing Flower of Scotland at the World Cup was recorded as the loudest moment in World Cup history.
Scotland's odds of winning the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket are approximately 0.2%.
Germany beat Curaçao 7–1 at the 2026 World Cup.
Alastair Campbell publicly pledged not to attend the Trump-hosted World Cup. Scotland qualified and their fans' Flower of Scotland was recorded as the loudest moment in World Cup history. Now he's between a rock and a hard place — and openly wondering whether he'd forgive himself for going.
When Scotland fans sang Flower of Scotland at the World Cup, it was recorded as the loudest moment in World Cup history.
Polymarket put Scotland's chances of winning the World Cup at approximately 0.2%, yet Alastair Campbell admitted he was seriously reconsidering his principled boycott of the tournament.
No indexed bits in this chapter.
The US has restricted its most capable AI model to American citizens only — not because it's an existential threat, but because it's a competitive weapon. If this is the future, Europe is already in the position of a country that doesn't own its own electricity grid.
Trump moved the G7 summit start date by a day so he could hold a UFC birthday event on the White House lawn. Only 13% of Americans approved. One fighter thanked Trump and then claimed Michelle Obama is a man. It was, as Rory put it, quite Roman Empire.
The counterargument says America won't cut Europe off — they need our markets and our data. But Rory Stewart says betting on that goodwill is like Shaka Zulu assuming the Industrial Revolution won't reach him. The Eurofighter was never as good as the F-35, but at least it existed when you needed it.
This episode
US President whose administration restricted Anthropic AI exports, hosted UFC cage fighting at the White House, and whose birthday moved the G7 start date.
Peruvian right-wing presidential candidate narrowly leading in the count against left-wing candidate Sánchez in one of the closest elections in history.
Former UK Secretary of State for Defence who resigned, reportedly over the Treasury blocking the Defence Security and Resilience Bank.
Tech billionaire referenced for his unfulfilled pledge to fight Mark Zuckerberg and his SpaceX IPO prospectus promising Mars colonisation.
US Secretary of Defense who publicly called Anthropic a bad company and celebrated blocking its AI export.
Meta CEO referenced in the context of a never-fought cage match with Elon Musk, noted to have trained seriously for the bout.
Collaborated with Rory Stewart on a miniseries about AI for The Rest Is Politics, exploring what the UK and Europe should do about technology.
US AI lab whose most advanced frontier model was restricted to American citizens only by the Trump administration on national security grounds.
French AI company cited as a potential European entity that a UK-European sovereign AI fund could invest in.
US chip manufacturer whose GPUs power AI frontier models; cited as a potential chokepoint if the US restricts chip exports to European AI projects.
US AI company whose ChatGPT models were used to illustrate the rapid progression of AI capability from GPT-3 to GPT-5.
Elon Musk's space company whose IPO prospectus was cited as promising returns contingent on putting a million people on Mars.
Global Combat Air Programme — a UK-Italy-Japan sixth-generation fighter jet project not due for delivery until 2040, whose relevance in a drone era is questioned.
Cited as the primary conventional military threat to Europe, driving arguments for increased UK and European defence spending.
Cited as a model of modern drone-heavy attritional warfare against which UK defence planners must benchmark future capabilities.
Stats
This episode
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
AI models can now complete what a human software programmer takes 48 hours to do in approximately one minute.
US Frontier AI labs are likely to spend over $740 billion on AI development over the next 2–3 years.
The United States spends approximately one trillion dollars a year on defence.
The GCAP fighter jet being developed with Italy and Japan will not be delivered until 2040.
Only 13% of Americans thought the UFC event at the White House was a good use of the venue.
The G7 summit started one day later than originally scheduled because Trump wanted to hold his UFC birthday event first.
The Peruvian presidential election result was 50.004% for Fujimori against 49.996% for Sánchez — a margin of approximately 1,303 votes.
Scotland fans singing Flower of Scotland at the World Cup was recorded as the loudest moment in World Cup history.
Anthropic employs staff who speak over 100 different first languages.
Academic research generally concludes that pound for pound, investing in education, infrastructure and skills generates more economic growth than investing in defence.
Elon Musk has recently become the world's first trillionaire.
Scotland's odds of winning the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket are approximately 0.2%.
Germany beat Curaçao 7–1 at the 2026 World Cup.
Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months.
We use essential and analytics cookies to run Vuci. To understand how the site is used: Privacy Policy.
Install Vuci on your phone
Add it to your home screen for a faster, app-like experience.
Install Vuci on your phone
Tap the Share button, then “Add to Home Screen”.
A new version is available
Reload to get the latest Vuci.