Podbit · Freakonomics Radio
The academic argument that insider trading makes prediction markets more efficient ignores a massive cost: the erosion of public trust. Gensler says lower trust raises the cost of capital for everyone.
Where this was said
At 1:00:50 · chapter starts 57:00
Gensler doesn't call it a grift, but he doesn't have to. He cites Trump's publicly disclosed financial forms showing $1.4 billion in crypto profits and notes, quietly, that there is always someone on the other side of those trades. He argues that regardless of whether any specific trade constitutes illegal insider trading, the perception of self-dealing — the president personally enriched by crypto while signing crypto legislation — is deeply corrosive to public trust in democratic governance. He expands the argument: members of Congress and their staffs should not be allowed to trade individual stocks, and the ban should extend to all three branches plus prediction markets. He notes Goldman Sachs has already barred its staff from trading prediction markets, except sports. The legal line is blurry — meeting with corporate executives might create material nonpublic information even without any intent to trade on it — but the solution is simple: just prohibit the trading.
President Trump's disclosed $1.4 billion in crypto profits while simultaneously signing legislation favorable to the crypto industry. Gensler says this undermines public trust in governance at the worst possible moment.
President Trump's financial disclosure forms reportedly show $1.4 billion in crypto profits, raising concerns about conflicts of interest in crypto policy-making.
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