Podbit · Hard Fork
SpaceX has two incredible businesses — reusable rockets and Starlink — but Elon Musk folded xAI and X into the company, apparently to hide those losses. Investors will have to take the good with the bad in a single stock.
Where this was said
At 5:35 · chapter starts 3:19
The hosts plunge into what could be the most consequential IPO wave in financial history. SpaceX is furthest along: it aims to raise $75 billion at $135 per share, valuing the combined entity — rockets, Starlink, xAI, and X — between $1.75 and $2 trillion [1] — Casey Newton "SpaceX IPO at $135/share: SpaceX plans to sell shares at $135 each, aiming to raise $75 billion and value the company at $1.75–$2 trillion." 04:17 . Casey frames SpaceX as two great businesses (reusable rockets, Starlink) yoked to two terrible ones (xAI and X), which Elon Musk apparently folded in to hide losses from weaker assets [2] — Casey Newton "It seemed like Elon Musk decided he needed to kind of hide his losses somewhere. And so they inherited the two worst companies he owned." 06:56 . Anthropic, meanwhile, filed a confidential S-1 and is expected to IPO at over $1 trillion — an almost incomprehensible trajectory given Kevin Roose's recollection of visiting the company in 2023 when it 'actively resisted the idea of making money.' The company's annualized revenue run rate reportedly jumped from $1 billion in early 2025 to $50 billion. OpenAI is also preparing to file. The hosts also flag their personal conflicts of interest: The New York Times is suing OpenAI, and Casey's fiancée works at Anthropic.
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all heading to public markets in 2026, potentially constituting the three biggest IPOs ever. SpaceX alone is targeting a $75 billion raise at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation — numbers never before seen in the history of capitalism.
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all expected to go public in 2026, potentially constituting the three largest IPOs in history.
SpaceX plans to sell shares at $135 each, aiming to raise $75 billion and value the company at $1.75–$2 trillion.
A successful SpaceX IPO would instantly place it among the very largest companies in the world by market capitalization.
Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 and is expected to go public at a valuation exceeding one trillion dollars.
In 2023, Anthropic was a glum, earnest group of AI safety obsessives who hadn't decided whether they even wanted to make a product. Now they're expected to IPO at over $1 trillion, with annualized revenue growing from $1 billion to $50 billion in roughly one year.
Avnish grew his solo business to $25,000 per month in just 15 months without spending a dollar on ads. His entire growth engine was built on community posts in Reddit and Facebook groups.
One well-crafted post in the right community took Avnish from single thousands of users to tens of thousands. This wasn't luck — it was a repeatable part of his 5-step playbook.
Most founders chase paid ads and influencer deals, but Avnish's growth came entirely from knowing where his users already gathered online. Dominating Reddit and Facebook groups — for free — was his entire strategy.
Spend 80% of your landing page design time above the fold. The hero section is the only thing most visitors will ever truly read, so it needs to deliver your full message instantly.
The dominant mobile monetization flow is simple: free download, onboarding, then a hard paywall that blocks all features until the user pays or starts a trial. It's unskippable by design — and that's exactly the point.
Switching PuffCount to a hard paywall and requiring a free trial before any feature access sent conversion rates soaring to 20–25%. One structural change to the payment flow — no new features, no new users — transformed the business.
Vasco is so confident in YouTube that he'll personally PayPal $500 to anyone who posts for 45 days and doesn't make $5,000. This isn't hype — it's a distillation of his own experience growing an AI app to $70K/month using nothing but daily videos.
Vasco's AI app went from zero to $70,000 a month in just two years. The entire growth engine was YouTube — one video a day, nothing fancy, no expensive tools. Most of his users came directly from the channel.
People buy from people they know, like, and trust. YouTube is the only platform that builds all three at scale — and Vasco's $1M business is the proof of concept.
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