The Iran-US ceasefire collapsed because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff drafted ambiguous MOU language that Iran used to claim control of the Strait of Hormuz. Paragraph 5 said Iran would make 'arrangements' for 'safe passage' — words that sound diplomatic but mean opposite things to each side.
Where this was said
At 13:00 · chapter starts 9:07
Tommy plays a supercut that juxtaposes Trump and Steve Witkoff's ebullient ceasefire rhetoric — 'the way we've done business for 47 years is a mistake' — with Trump's later truth-social threats of '1,000 missiles locked and loaded.' Ben diagnoses the pattern: 80-90% of what the Trump team says is pure bullshit, and the roller coaster rhetoric obscures a static reality — Iran controls the strait, the regime has gotten more hardline, and the nuclear question remains unanswered. Tommy explains the proximate triggers: Israeli intelligence about an alleged Iranian assassination plot against Trump, and a dispute over which shipping channel vessels should use in the Strait. The key fault line is MOU paragraph 5, which Iran reads as granting it sovereignty over maritime services in the strait. Oil futures jumped 10% on the news, Wall Street coined the 'Nacho Trade' (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), and Goldman Sachs is studying bypass pipelines that won't be ready until 2027-2028. Ben's core argument: you cannot solve this with military force. Iran is there. It's not going anywhere. Only a diplomatic deal will reopen the strait.
The Iran-US ceasefire broke down over disputed language in paragraph 5 of the MOU about who controls the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting open warfare.
Oil futures jumped roughly 10% after the resumption of fighting, and Wall Street traders coined the term 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
Oil futures surged 10% after fighting resumed, and Wall Street traders created the 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens. Goldman Sachs is studying alternative pipelines, but any solution is a 2027-2028 project at best.
Wall Street traders coined 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens — as a trading strategy following the resumption of US-Iran fighting, reflecting pessimism about reopening the strait.
After a tabloid savaged him for months over his broken engagement, Kierkegaard turned his personal humiliation into devastating philosophical critique. He argued that mass media creates a phantom 'public opinion,' incentivizes people to suppress their individuality, and produces the leveling effect — a culture where standing out is a liability.
Ten years ago, 90% of tech media coverage was relentlessly negative and Kalanick felt he couldn't speak freely. Today, the rise of independent podcasters and Elon Musk buying Twitter has fundamentally changed the game — and it's why he's finally willing to talk.
Kay Classman, 28, was arrested for repeatedly posing as a 16-year-old and enrolling in Bronx high schools across multiple districts. She wasn't a predator — just someone so sad and lonely she wanted her lost childhood back. That's somehow sadder.
Disney, Meta, and Paramount have collectively paid Trump roughly $60 million to settle what Galloway calls nuisance lawsuits — all routed to his presidential library. Newsrooms are folding. The White House is handpicking press pool participants. This is what the end of a free press looks like.
One cheap fake documentary made by a teenager in his mother's basement convinced 16% of Americans that 9/11 was an inside job. Social media didn't invent conspiracy — it just gave it a rocket engine.
A progressive organization with a stated mission to destroy Turning Point USA received millions from ActBlue and is now publicly pushing the narrative that TPUSA insiders and Israel murdered Charlie Kirk. Andrew Wilson traced the network of accounts all amplifying the same conspiracy in perfect unison.
The microphone-bomb theory fails on every physical front: no smoke, no ignition, mic on the wrong side of the wound. And the .30-06 rifle round used is extensively documented by the US Army — it does not always produce a through-and-through wound. Wilson argues this is a well-studied projectile with well-understood behavior.
Andrew Wilson publicly offered Candace Owens $300,000 to debate her theory that Israel and TPUSA murdered Charlie Kirk. She refused. He argues that flat-earthers will debate anyone, but Kirk conspiracy theorists won't defend their claims under scrutiny.
Erika Kirk became the CEO of TPUSA while grieving her husband's murder in public, and now faces tens of thousands accusing her of conspiring to kill him. Andrew Wilson calls it mind-boggling psychological torture. The sparklers at the memorial weren't suspicious — they were a grieving widow doing her best in an impossible situation.
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