Oil futures surged 10% after fighting resumed, and Wall Street traders created the 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens. Goldman Sachs is studying alternative pipelines, but any solution is a 2027-2028 project at best.
Where this was said
At 14:42 · chapter starts 9:07
Tommy plays a supercut that juxtaposes Trump and Steve Witkoff's ebullient ceasefire rhetoric — 'the way we've done business for 47 years is a mistake' — with Trump's later truth-social threats of '1,000 missiles locked and loaded.' Ben diagnoses the pattern: 80-90% of what the Trump team says is pure bullshit, and the roller coaster rhetoric obscures a static reality — Iran controls the strait, the regime has gotten more hardline, and the nuclear question remains unanswered. Tommy explains the proximate triggers: Israeli intelligence about an alleged Iranian assassination plot against Trump, and a dispute over which shipping channel vessels should use in the Strait. The key fault line is MOU paragraph 5, which Iran reads as granting it sovereignty over maritime services in the strait. Oil futures jumped 10% on the news, Wall Street coined the 'Nacho Trade' (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), and Goldman Sachs is studying bypass pipelines that won't be ready until 2027-2028. Ben's core argument: you cannot solve this with military force. Iran is there. It's not going anywhere. Only a diplomatic deal will reopen the strait.
The Iran-US ceasefire broke down over disputed language in paragraph 5 of the MOU about who controls the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting open warfare.
The Iran-US ceasefire collapsed because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff drafted ambiguous MOU language that Iran used to claim control of the Strait of Hormuz. Paragraph 5 said Iran would make 'arrangements' for 'safe passage' — words that sound diplomatic but mean opposite things to each side.
Oil futures jumped roughly 10% after the resumption of fighting, and Wall Street traders coined the term 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
Wall Street traders coined 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens — as a trading strategy following the resumption of US-Iran fighting, reflecting pessimism about reopening the strait.
PropGPT launched with 20 downloads a day and strong influencer marketing but hit a ceiling at $1,000–$2,000 MRR. High download numbers masked a critical flaw: almost nobody stuck around after the free trial ended.
Eyal and Yali made a bold bet: stop all marketing, go back into the cave, and rebuild PropGPT from scratch. Four months of pure engineering and design work with zero revenue growth — and it paid off massively.
After rebuilding, PropGPT relaunched at $1,700 MRR. Within 2.5 months, it peaked at $40K MRR and 2,000 downloads in a single day. The product hadn't changed its audience — it had changed how well it served them.
Users didn't want a sports betting analytics tool — they wanted to be told the answer. Eyal realized their app was making users do the work when they just wanted the result, and that single insight drove the entire rebuild.
Step 1: know exactly who you're building for. Step 2: worship your data. Step 3: obsess over in-app analytics to find drop-off points. Step 4: scale with influencer marketing only after the product converts. In that order.
A 45% download-to-trial rate sounds great — until you see 13% trial-to-paid. That gap isn't a marketing problem. It's a product problem. Eyal breaks down how to read these signals before they kill your business.
Their 70th influencer video hit 600,000 views and single-handedly pushed PropGPT's ARR from $8,000 to $38,000 in three days. Influencer marketing has a lottery-like upside — but only if the product can hold the users it acquires.
Most founders struggle with distribution. Eyal and Yali had it nailed from day one — and still failed. Their story proves the rarer, less-discussed truth: a great go-to-market strategy is worthless if the product can't retain users.
Get a co-founder who has your back. Be scientifically honest about whether your idea has real demand. Once you convince yourself, it becomes an order of magnitude easier to convince investors and team members to join you.
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