Ceasefire collapse → forever war
The Iran-US ceasefire broke down over disputed language in paragraph 5 of the MOU about who controls the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting open warfare.
Where this was said
Return to Forever War: The Iran-US Ceasefire Collapses
At 13:00 · chapter starts 9:07
Tommy plays a supercut that juxtaposes Trump and Steve Witkoff's ebullient ceasefire rhetoric — 'the way we've done business for 47 years is a mistake' — with Trump's later truth-social threats of '1,000 missiles locked and loaded.' Ben diagnoses the pattern: 80-90% of what the Trump team says is pure bullshit, and the roller coaster rhetoric obscures a static reality — Iran controls the strait, the regime has gotten more hardline, and the nuclear question remains unanswered. Tommy explains the proximate triggers: Israeli intelligence about an alleged Iranian assassination plot against Trump, and a dispute over which shipping channel vessels should use in the Strait. The key fault line is MOU paragraph 5, which Iran reads as granting it sovereignty over maritime services in the strait. Oil futures jumped 10% on the news, Wall Street coined the 'Nacho Trade' (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), and Goldman Sachs is studying bypass pipelines that won't be ready until 2027-2028. Ben's core argument: you cannot solve this with military force. Iran is there. It's not going anywhere. Only a diplomatic deal will reopen the strait.
The Iran Ceasefire Was Always Doomed
The Iran-US ceasefire collapsed because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff drafted ambiguous MOU language that Iran used to claim control of the Strait of Hormuz. Paragraph 5 said Iran would make 'arrangements' for 'safe passage' — words that sound diplomatic but mean opposite things to each side.
Oil futures up 10%
Oil futures jumped roughly 10% after the resumption of fighting, and Wall Street traders coined the term 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
The Nacho Trade: Wall Street Bets Against Hormuz Reopening
Oil futures surged 10% after fighting resumed, and Wall Street traders created the 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens. Goldman Sachs is studying alternative pipelines, but any solution is a 2027-2028 project at best.
Nacho Trade coined by Wall Street
Wall Street traders coined 'Nacho Trade' — Not A Chance Hormuz Opens — as a trading strategy following the resumption of US-Iran fighting, reflecting pessimism about reopening the strait.
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