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548. Burnham vs. Westminster and Trump’s Next Target
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Trump's Monroe Doctrine and the Battle for Brazil
At 45:40 · chapter starts 44:00
Rory argues that Trump's foreign policy has a rare coherence when it comes to the Americas: he is explicitly pursuing a 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine', seeking to dominate the Western Hemisphere as a strategic priority over the Middle East, Europe, or Asia. Evidence includes the kidnapping of Venezuela's president, relentless pressure on Cuba, sanctions threats against left-wing candidates, and rewards for allies like Milei. China and the global left will see the current Latin American shift as a Trump victory. Alastair then focuses on Brazil: Lula, now 80, faces Flávio Bolsonaro in an October first round, with Trump expected to back him. A Brazilian survey shows a Trump endorsement would increase vote intention for 17% but decrease it for 15% — its impact is ambiguous. Alastair notes the overseas Peruvian vote — largely based in the US — may have tipped Fujimori's narrow win, raising questions about direct Trump influence on diaspora voters. [1] — Rory Stewart "Trump's 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' is simple: forget the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — dominate the Americas. From pardonin…" 45:35
In Honduras's election, the Trump-backed candidate Asfura won by less than one percentage point, 40.3% to 39.4%, after Trump threatened 'hell to pay' if he didn't win.
Trump's 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' is simple: forget the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — dominate the Americas. From pardoning jailed Honduran presidents to threatening sanctions against left-wing candidates, Trump is actively reshaping Latin America's political landscape.
Brazilian President Lula, who is 80 years old, is expected to stand for re-election in Brazil's October 2026 first-round presidential election against Bolsonaro's son.
With Bolsonaro himself in jail and barred from standing, his eldest son Flávio is running in Brazil's October election, and Alastair Campbell predicted Trump will endorse him.
