$150B IPO oversubscription
SpaceX's IPO allocation of $75 billion was double oversubscribed, with $150 billion already committed, reflecting extraordinary investor appetite.
Snapshot · God Mode Podcast
EP17: The SpaceX IPO Thesis Just Flipped + Anthropic Passed OpenAI (First Time IRL, w/ Reuben Ferrante)
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Jun 19, 2026
Where this was said
SpaceX IPO: the $11B Google deal that flips the thesis
At 7:20 · chapter starts 6:00
Two weeks earlier, Ben had argued the SpaceX IPO was overvalued given the revenue picture. Then the Google compute deal landed. At $920 million per month, $11 billion per year in new ARR from a single contract, the thesis flipped. [1] — Ben "$11B/year from one Google deal: SpaceX's deal with Google adds approximately $920 million per month — around $11 billion per year — in annu…" 07:06 The deal added more annual revenue in one stroke than Snowflake's entire annual run rate, Ben notes — a vivid benchmark for the scale involved. The IPO, priced on June 12 (two days after this recording), had already received $150 billion in commitments against a $75 billion raise. Ben's conclusion: his bearish view has changed. The crew begins working through whether a $2 trillion valuation is actually defensible.
The $11B Google Deal That Flipped the SpaceX Bear Case
A single Google compute deal — $920 million per month, $11 billion per year — rewrote the SpaceX valuation story overnight. The IPO allocation was double-oversubscribed at $150 billion committed before it even priced.
$11B/year from one Google deal
SpaceX's deal with Google adds approximately $920 million per month — around $11 billion per year — in annual recurring revenue, fundamentally changing the SpaceX valuation thesis.
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