A 60-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales could net Iran up to $10 billion, according to one progressive economist — and that's before any frozen assets are released.
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At 8:10 · chapter starts 6:15
Now that the text of the US-Iran MOU has leaked, Tommy walks listeners through exactly what each side received — and the imbalance is stark. On Iran's side of the ledger: a 60-day oil sanctions waiver estimated to generate up to $10 billion, access to $24 billion in frozen assets that the MOU explicitly allows Iran to spend on 'any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of Iran,' a commitment to remove all US and UN sanctions, and a $300 billion private reconstruction fund with Reuters reporting $150 billion in early commitments. The ceasefire covers Lebanon, the 60-day negotiating window can be extended, and both sides will end the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran has also agreed to set up eventual tolling infrastructure in the Strait, with a new insurance company already announced. The hosts note that this transparency is exactly why Trump tried to keep the document classified.
Iran secured $10 billion in immediate oil sanctions relief, $24 billion in unfrozen assets with no spending restrictions, full sanctions removal, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund — while the US got a vague nuclear reaffirmation and punted on enrichment. Ballistic missiles and proxy groups aren't even mentioned.
Iran is set to receive approximately $24 billion in previously frozen assets — money from past oil sales stuck in foreign bank accounts due to sanctions — and the MOU says Iran can spend it on anything it wants.
The MOU includes a proposal for a $300 billion private reconstruction fund for Iran, with Reuters reporting $150 billion in commitments already, though the hosts are skeptical it will ever materialize.
The MOU only requires Iran to 'downblend' — reduce the purity of — its enriched uranium stockpile, rather than shipping it out of the country, meaning Iran can re-enrich it later.
Neither Iran's ballistic missile program nor its support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah are mentioned anywhere in the MOU — despite these being stated US war aims from the start.
Before the war, the US demanded zero enrichment, no proxy support, and geographic limits on Iran's missiles. The MOU delivers none of those things. Under the JCPOA, Iran got no money until after nuclear steps were completed. Now Iran gets billions upfront for doing almost nothing.
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