Sixth-highest Reform vote in the constituency
Makerfield had the sixth-highest Reform vote of any constituency at the last general election, making Burnham's win even more striking.
Snapshot · The Rest Is Politics
545. Burnham Beats Reform: Britain’s Next Prime Minister?
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Jun 19, 2026
Where this was said
The Exam Question: Who Can Stop Reform?
At 7:30 · chapter starts 7:10
Alastair Campbell zeros in on the number that will animate every Labour MP's thinking: a 23% swing from Reform to Labour in the seats Reform had taken just weeks earlier. He credits Peter Kellner for the detail that Makerfield had the sixth-highest Reform vote in the country at the last general election, making the win still more remarkable. The key question — who can stop Reform — appears, for now, to have an answer. Campbell reports that as late as Wednesday Keir Starmer was telling MPs he would fight any challenge, but the by-election has transformed the arithmetic overnight. Burnham's acceptance speech contained a coded message — 'we'll get no second chance' — and all the Makerfield billboards said 'Andy', not 'Labour'. Campbell, having spoken to key insiders, believes Burnham could be Prime Minister by conference in late September.
Burnham Could Be PM by Conference
Alastair Campbell, who says he has spoken to key insiders, believes Andy Burnham could be Prime Minister by Labour's conference in late September. The process depends entirely on Keir Starmer's reaction — but with Betfair at 94%, the markets have already made their call.
Rory Stewart: Starmer Is the Iceberg Ship
Keir Starmer is a losing proposition — the ship heading into an iceberg. Getting off the ship into the lifeboats may not work, but there is no serious case for staying with a Prime Minister who cannot make a speech, has no economic definition, and cannot win the next election.
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